Optimization of parameters for the HEC-HMS model based on real-time flow monitoring data: a case study of Hyderabad metropolitan area, India
摘要
Urban areas worldwide have increasingly faced frequent flooding due to rapid urbanization, conversion of natural land cover into impervious surfaces, and inadequate stormwater management. To mitigate surface flooding, continuous monitoring of channel flows, effective stormwater management, and climate adaptation strategies are essential. This study focuses on estimating runoff using an ultrasonic level transmitter sensor to address the recurring flooding issue in the Kukatpally channel. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was applied to estimate runoff and calibrate the model for the Kukatpally channel, which lies within Zone-XII of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC), covering an area of 173.687 km². The study analyzed flood events from October 13–14, 2020, to assess rainfall-runoff relationships. The watershed was delineated using a 10 m × 10 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and required hydrological parameters were extracted. Calibration was performed using an optimization technique, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on key model parameters. Among various parameters in HEC-HMS, the Curve Number (CN), which reflects land use/land cover (LULC) changes, was considered. The transition from pervious to impervious surfaces significantly impacted CN values. The Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN), SCS Unit Hydrograph, and Muskingum routing methods were used for hydrological simulations. Sensitivity analysis revealed that Muskingum (K) routing was the most sensitive parameter. The simulated and validated flows against observed flow during the 13th -14th October 2020 and 14th July 2021 flood events indicated strong model performance, with an RMSE of 0.18, a relative error of 0, NSE of 0.969, R² of 0.995, and R2 = 0.820, NSE = 0.77 respectively, confirming its reliability for hydrologic simulation in the Kukatpally watershed (Zone-XII).