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<p>Understanding seasonal dynamics in lake heat exchange is critical for accurately simulating water temperature in tropical lakes. This study investigates two calibration strategies: fixed scaling factors and time-varying scaling factors, for the bulk weather formula of Kondo (1975) integrated into the Fantom Refined 3D hydrodynamic model. The approach is applied to a small tropical lake (Sampaloc Lake, Philippines), with model calibration conducted using observed temperature profiles and satellite-derived weather data over a one-year period. This study is among the first to apply seasonally varying heat flux calibration using satellite-based inputs in 3D modeling of a tropical crater lake. Time-varying factors were adjusted monthly based on sensitivity analysis, while fixed factors were derived from initial values. Results show that time-varying factors significantly improved model accuracy during transitional monsoon periods, particularly in representing wind-driven mixing and light attenuation. Among the parameters tested, wind and light extinction factors exhibited strong seasonal variability, whereas shortwave, longwave, and air temperature factors remained relatively stable and may be treated as constants for long-term simulations. Model validation using an independent one-year dataset confirmed the robustness of both approaches. Fixed factors provided practical advantages in data-limited contexts without significant compromise in accuracy. The study offers a flexible calibration framework for weather-driven fluxes that improves model performance without relying on fully automated optimization. These findings contribute to more reliable lake temperature simulations and offer practical guidance for thermal modeling in tropical limnological applications.</p>

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Improving 3D temperature modeling of tropical lakes through seasonal heat flux calibration

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月13日

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  • Maurice Duka,
  • Jake Henson Andres,
  • Timothy Luis Bernardo,
  • Malone Luke Monterey,
  • Tetsuya Shintani,
  • Katsuhide Yokoyama

摘要

Understanding seasonal dynamics in lake heat exchange is critical for accurately simulating water temperature in tropical lakes. This study investigates two calibration strategies: fixed scaling factors and time-varying scaling factors, for the bulk weather formula of Kondo (1975) integrated into the Fantom Refined 3D hydrodynamic model. The approach is applied to a small tropical lake (Sampaloc Lake, Philippines), with model calibration conducted using observed temperature profiles and satellite-derived weather data over a one-year period. This study is among the first to apply seasonally varying heat flux calibration using satellite-based inputs in 3D modeling of a tropical crater lake. Time-varying factors were adjusted monthly based on sensitivity analysis, while fixed factors were derived from initial values. Results show that time-varying factors significantly improved model accuracy during transitional monsoon periods, particularly in representing wind-driven mixing and light attenuation. Among the parameters tested, wind and light extinction factors exhibited strong seasonal variability, whereas shortwave, longwave, and air temperature factors remained relatively stable and may be treated as constants for long-term simulations. Model validation using an independent one-year dataset confirmed the robustness of both approaches. Fixed factors provided practical advantages in data-limited contexts without significant compromise in accuracy. The study offers a flexible calibration framework for weather-driven fluxes that improves model performance without relying on fully automated optimization. These findings contribute to more reliable lake temperature simulations and offer practical guidance for thermal modeling in tropical limnological applications.