<p>Maize streak disease (MSD), a major viral threat to global maize production, poses significant challenges due to its widespread impact on yield and quality. This study presents a comprehensive mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of MSD and assess the effectiveness of insecticide-based interventions. The model incorporates the use of insecticides as a control strategy and evaluates their impact on disease spread through the calculation of the effective reproduction number, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2443_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="23" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_e\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>e</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, derived using the next-generation matrix approach. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established under the condition <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2443_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_e &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>e</mi> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, indicating containment of the disease, while instability for <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2443_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_e &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>e</mi> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> suggests potential for epidemic spread. To further validate the effectiveness of insecticides, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proven using a Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via the normalized forward sensitivity index, identifies critical parameters influencing <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2443_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="23" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_e\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>e</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, offering valuable guidance for optimizing insecticide application strategies. The findings indicate that increased insecticide use is vital for reducing MSD incidence. This work provides key insights into the role of targeted agricultural interventions and serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, agronomists, and researchers aiming to develop sustainable strategies for MSD management.</p>

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Mathematical modeling of the impact of insecticides on the transmission dynamics of maize streak disease

  • Fadhili M. Mrope,
  • Odeli J. Kigodi,
  • N. Jeeva,
  • M. Manivel

摘要

Maize streak disease (MSD), a major viral threat to global maize production, poses significant challenges due to its widespread impact on yield and quality. This study presents a comprehensive mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of MSD and assess the effectiveness of insecticide-based interventions. The model incorporates the use of insecticides as a control strategy and evaluates their impact on disease spread through the calculation of the effective reproduction number, \({\mathcal {R}}_e\) R e , derived using the next-generation matrix approach. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established under the condition \({\mathcal {R}}_e < 1\) R e < 1 , indicating containment of the disease, while instability for \({\mathcal {R}}_e > 1\) R e > 1 suggests potential for epidemic spread. To further validate the effectiveness of insecticides, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proven using a Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via the normalized forward sensitivity index, identifies critical parameters influencing \({\mathcal {R}}_e\) R e , offering valuable guidance for optimizing insecticide application strategies. The findings indicate that increased insecticide use is vital for reducing MSD incidence. This work provides key insights into the role of targeted agricultural interventions and serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, agronomists, and researchers aiming to develop sustainable strategies for MSD management.