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<p>Land cover changes (LCC) affect ecosystem service values (ESVs) in a river basin, influencing human well-being. An adequate understanding of the dynamic relationship between LCC and ESVs is essential for ensuring ecosystem sustainability. This study aims to develop a framework investigating the impact of LCC on ESVs under different scenarios, which was then tested in the highly polluted Upper Citarum River Basin in Indonesia. Machine learning was employed to produce land cover maps which then served as input for a land cover prediction model using the cellular automata-Markov chain model. The land cover prediction model with various scenarios produced future land cover predictions, and the impact on ecosystem services was assessed using an ecosystem services valuation framework (spatial-based method). The decline in average ESVs was noticed from 2013 (0.586) to 2023 (0.541). Supporting, regulating, provisioning and cultural services are among contributors categories of the studied ecosystem services. Furthermore, water regulation and biodiversity which were main components of ecosystem services, decreased from 0.363 to 0.336 and 0.300 to 0.276, respectively. The LCC modelling results of various scenarios show varying impacts on four categories of ecosystem service values, with the forest scenario showing smaller urbanised area (in 2028 and 2033) compared to other scenarios. This study shows how land management policies influence humans’ benefits through ecosystem service values. Policymakers and planners can use this study to ensure sustainable ecosystem services through spatial planning and adaptive policies, with the hope of controlling urban expansion in highly polluted areas.</p>

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Exploring land cover change impacts on ecosystem services using machine learning technique and scenario simulation: case study of the Upper Citarum River Basin, Indonesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月11日

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  • Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim,
  • Budi Heru Santosa,
  • Dwi Nowo Martono,
  • Dionysius Bryan Sencaki,
  • Hari Prayogi,
  • Robby Arifandri,
  • Apip Apip,
  • Widya Ningrum,
  • Kai Schröter,
  • Max Jacob Steinhausen

摘要

Land cover changes (LCC) affect ecosystem service values (ESVs) in a river basin, influencing human well-being. An adequate understanding of the dynamic relationship between LCC and ESVs is essential for ensuring ecosystem sustainability. This study aims to develop a framework investigating the impact of LCC on ESVs under different scenarios, which was then tested in the highly polluted Upper Citarum River Basin in Indonesia. Machine learning was employed to produce land cover maps which then served as input for a land cover prediction model using the cellular automata-Markov chain model. The land cover prediction model with various scenarios produced future land cover predictions, and the impact on ecosystem services was assessed using an ecosystem services valuation framework (spatial-based method). The decline in average ESVs was noticed from 2013 (0.586) to 2023 (0.541). Supporting, regulating, provisioning and cultural services are among contributors categories of the studied ecosystem services. Furthermore, water regulation and biodiversity which were main components of ecosystem services, decreased from 0.363 to 0.336 and 0.300 to 0.276, respectively. The LCC modelling results of various scenarios show varying impacts on four categories of ecosystem service values, with the forest scenario showing smaller urbanised area (in 2028 and 2033) compared to other scenarios. This study shows how land management policies influence humans’ benefits through ecosystem service values. Policymakers and planners can use this study to ensure sustainable ecosystem services through spatial planning and adaptive policies, with the hope of controlling urban expansion in highly polluted areas.