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<p>Cloud microphysics parameterization (CMP) can significantly impact the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) through their influence of water phase changes (hydrometeors) on convection permitting scale. The impact of CMP on Arabian Sea (AS) TC track, structures and intensity simulations is discussed herein&#xa0;using an Advanced Research version of WRF model at 3&#xa0;km horizontal resolutions. For sensitivity tests five CMP schemes namely: Lin, WSM6, Goddard, WDM6 and NSSL2-mom tested on six TCs that formed over AS during 2007–2019. The simulated track and intensity have been validated against the IMD best-fit track observations, and suggested that Goddard CMP experiment had the lowest mean track error of about 117&#xa0;km over six days, followed by Lin at 118&#xa0;km and NSSL experiments at close to 123&#xa0;km. Moreover, NSSL scheme provides the least mean landfall error of approximately 91&#xa0;km. In particular, the scheme Goddard captured the mean track errors of approximately 107&#xa0;km for straight-moving cyclones while the scheme NSSL significantly reduced the mean track errors for recurving cyclones with a track error of 116&#xa0;km. Maximum surface winds (MSW) and minimum central pressure are provided better with Goddard experiment with the lowest mean absolute error of about 10&#xa0;m/s and 13&#xa0;hPa, respectively. The Goddard scheme provided the highest index of agreement (IOA) between the model and observation for MSW, at about 0.97 for SuCS Kyaar, 0.903 for ESCS Maha, and 0.775 for Mekunu, while the WDM6 scheme provided IOA of about 0.785 for Phet cyclone. Results suggested that the simulated intensities differed due to influence of hydrometeors, diabatic heating, and its distributions.</p>

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Role of microphysical processes in a convection permitting scale for the simulation of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones using WRF model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月12日

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  • Rohini Ashok,
  • Kuvar Satya Singh

摘要

Cloud microphysics parameterization (CMP) can significantly impact the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) through their influence of water phase changes (hydrometeors) on convection permitting scale. The impact of CMP on Arabian Sea (AS) TC track, structures and intensity simulations is discussed herein using an Advanced Research version of WRF model at 3 km horizontal resolutions. For sensitivity tests five CMP schemes namely: Lin, WSM6, Goddard, WDM6 and NSSL2-mom tested on six TCs that formed over AS during 2007–2019. The simulated track and intensity have been validated against the IMD best-fit track observations, and suggested that Goddard CMP experiment had the lowest mean track error of about 117 km over six days, followed by Lin at 118 km and NSSL experiments at close to 123 km. Moreover, NSSL scheme provides the least mean landfall error of approximately 91 km. In particular, the scheme Goddard captured the mean track errors of approximately 107 km for straight-moving cyclones while the scheme NSSL significantly reduced the mean track errors for recurving cyclones with a track error of 116 km. Maximum surface winds (MSW) and minimum central pressure are provided better with Goddard experiment with the lowest mean absolute error of about 10 m/s and 13 hPa, respectively. The Goddard scheme provided the highest index of agreement (IOA) between the model and observation for MSW, at about 0.97 for SuCS Kyaar, 0.903 for ESCS Maha, and 0.775 for Mekunu, while the WDM6 scheme provided IOA of about 0.785 for Phet cyclone. Results suggested that the simulated intensities differed due to influence of hydrometeors, diabatic heating, and its distributions.