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<p>Fuel price fluctuations affect not only the energy sector but also the entire macroeconomic system. Over the past decade, the Italian fuel sector has faced unprecedented events, most notably the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the introduction of the regional average price policy, which have altered both demand conditions and competitive mechanisms. These shocks have generated heterogeneous effects across Italian provinces, reflecting underlying differences in mobility patterns and market structure. Using high-frequency data covering 2016–2024, this work provides new evidence on how these shocks have affected the Italian fuel market. Combining structural break tests with a Local Projection framework and a VAR-X counterfactual approach, we show that the three events generated distinct and time-varying adjustments in gasoline and diesel prices. The findings highlight that the evolution of fuel prices in Italy depends less on general market trends than on the way shocks interact with local market conditions and institutional frameworks. Fully assessing the impact of future regulatory or geopolitical events requires accounting for these structural discontinuities and for the spatial heterogeneity that characterizes the Italian fuel market.</p>

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Insights from Fuel Prices: A Local Projection Time-Series Analysis with Exogenous Structural Breaks

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Elsa Amaddeo,
  • Angela Stefania Bergantino,
  • Giulio Fusco,
  • Mario Intini,
  • Gianluca Monturano

摘要

Fuel price fluctuations affect not only the energy sector but also the entire macroeconomic system. Over the past decade, the Italian fuel sector has faced unprecedented events, most notably the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the introduction of the regional average price policy, which have altered both demand conditions and competitive mechanisms. These shocks have generated heterogeneous effects across Italian provinces, reflecting underlying differences in mobility patterns and market structure. Using high-frequency data covering 2016–2024, this work provides new evidence on how these shocks have affected the Italian fuel market. Combining structural break tests with a Local Projection framework and a VAR-X counterfactual approach, we show that the three events generated distinct and time-varying adjustments in gasoline and diesel prices. The findings highlight that the evolution of fuel prices in Italy depends less on general market trends than on the way shocks interact with local market conditions and institutional frameworks. Fully assessing the impact of future regulatory or geopolitical events requires accounting for these structural discontinuities and for the spatial heterogeneity that characterizes the Italian fuel market.