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<p>Sea-level rise (SLR) is threatening the coastal population with its serious implications. SLR is one of the adverse manifestations of climate change, according to the Sixth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SLR is influenced by different climatic and oceanic variables that vary from one location to another causing a significant difference in its impact. This study attempts to model and project the local SLR till the end of the year 2100 at 19 different coastal cities around the world. Initially, a combined index (CI) is developed using nine different climatic and oceanic variables. The location-specific CI is used in an SLR model at each of the coastal cities. After validating the developed model, it is used for projecting the future SLR for three different climate change scenarios, designated by Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The compounding effect of projected sea-level contribution from melting ice-sheets/glaciers, land water storage, and vertical land motion is also considered. The future projected SLR obtained at different coastal cities is alarming, and the worst (maximum) is for the SSP5-8.5 scenario at all coastal cities. It is as high as 1.56&#xa0;m at Manila. The lowest rise is about 670&#xa0;mm, which is estimated for the coastal city of Bergen. The projected sea level from this study is useful for coastal area managers for assessment of coastal flood risk, disaster planning during tropical cyclone events, and projection of coastal processes for the planning of safe climate-resilient coastal habitation zones and infrastructure development.</p>

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Modelling and future projection of local sea-level rise at coastal cities around the world

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月10日

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  • A. Naren,
  • R. S. Kankara,
  • Rajib Maity,
  • J. Sinha

摘要

Sea-level rise (SLR) is threatening the coastal population with its serious implications. SLR is one of the adverse manifestations of climate change, according to the Sixth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SLR is influenced by different climatic and oceanic variables that vary from one location to another causing a significant difference in its impact. This study attempts to model and project the local SLR till the end of the year 2100 at 19 different coastal cities around the world. Initially, a combined index (CI) is developed using nine different climatic and oceanic variables. The location-specific CI is used in an SLR model at each of the coastal cities. After validating the developed model, it is used for projecting the future SLR for three different climate change scenarios, designated by Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The compounding effect of projected sea-level contribution from melting ice-sheets/glaciers, land water storage, and vertical land motion is also considered. The future projected SLR obtained at different coastal cities is alarming, and the worst (maximum) is for the SSP5-8.5 scenario at all coastal cities. It is as high as 1.56 m at Manila. The lowest rise is about 670 mm, which is estimated for the coastal city of Bergen. The projected sea level from this study is useful for coastal area managers for assessment of coastal flood risk, disaster planning during tropical cyclone events, and projection of coastal processes for the planning of safe climate-resilient coastal habitation zones and infrastructure development.