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<p>Estimating net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) is critical for reducing pollution at the source and protecting drinking water quality. However, the socio-environmental drivers of NANI remain poorly understood. This study assessed NANI dynamics over 32 years in the Chaobai River Basin, a major water source for Beijing, China. Using a Localized NANI model and scenario analysis, we quantified nitrogen impacts on water quality and proposed collaborative reduction strategies. An average NANI flux of 2088.51&#xa0;kg N·km<sup>− 2</sup>·a<sup>− 1</sup> was observed, with agricultural sources contributing 49.80%. The utilization rate of external nitrogen by crops was only 36.6%. NANI composition showed clearer sub-basin differentiation than interannual clustering, and was primarily driven by urbanization (64.7%), elevation (19.1%) and gross domestic product (GDP) (2.5%). 45.3% of the variation in water quality indicators were explained by NANI components, mainly driven by livestock breeding (34.8%), wastewater treatment (5.4%) and urban population (4.6%). Structural equation modeling (SEM) indicated that GDP growth reduced total nitrogen flux by suppressing livestock-related activities. Conversely, urbanization was associated with reduced dissolved oxygen, mainly through increased nitrogen inputs from natural land. Scenario analysis revealed that combined consumption-side (CSA) and production-side abatement (PSA) scenario achieved a 6.68% safety margin. Under the scenario incorporating terminal water treatment (TTA), this margin increased to 23.78%. PSA mostly contributed to NANI reduction (35.67%), whereas CSA and TTA accounted for 2.71% and 2.51%, respectively. From a “diet–production–treatment” perspective, this study provides a quantitative basis for nitrogen policy development in critical reservoir catchments.</p>

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Localized Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs Framework for Water Safety in the Miyun Reservoir Basin: Drivers, Dietary Structure Influences and Mitigation Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Xiaoxiao Chen,
  • Dongliang Zhao,
  • Luyao Zhong,
  • Wenjiao Zhang,
  • Shuang Zhang,
  • Xiaoyu Guo

摘要

Estimating net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) is critical for reducing pollution at the source and protecting drinking water quality. However, the socio-environmental drivers of NANI remain poorly understood. This study assessed NANI dynamics over 32 years in the Chaobai River Basin, a major water source for Beijing, China. Using a Localized NANI model and scenario analysis, we quantified nitrogen impacts on water quality and proposed collaborative reduction strategies. An average NANI flux of 2088.51 kg N·km− 2·a− 1 was observed, with agricultural sources contributing 49.80%. The utilization rate of external nitrogen by crops was only 36.6%. NANI composition showed clearer sub-basin differentiation than interannual clustering, and was primarily driven by urbanization (64.7%), elevation (19.1%) and gross domestic product (GDP) (2.5%). 45.3% of the variation in water quality indicators were explained by NANI components, mainly driven by livestock breeding (34.8%), wastewater treatment (5.4%) and urban population (4.6%). Structural equation modeling (SEM) indicated that GDP growth reduced total nitrogen flux by suppressing livestock-related activities. Conversely, urbanization was associated with reduced dissolved oxygen, mainly through increased nitrogen inputs from natural land. Scenario analysis revealed that combined consumption-side (CSA) and production-side abatement (PSA) scenario achieved a 6.68% safety margin. Under the scenario incorporating terminal water treatment (TTA), this margin increased to 23.78%. PSA mostly contributed to NANI reduction (35.67%), whereas CSA and TTA accounted for 2.71% and 2.51%, respectively. From a “diet–production–treatment” perspective, this study provides a quantitative basis for nitrogen policy development in critical reservoir catchments.