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<p>This study assessed the reliability of vertically loaded spread footing design by comparing the Eurocode 7 and traditional deterministic procedure with a probabilistic approach under soil parameter uncertainty. The analysis addressed challenges in regions with scarce geotechnical data and diverse design practices. A wide range of ground conditions was examined using First-Order Reliability Methods and Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the influence of soil parameter uncertainty on the reliability of foundation design. Results revealed that Eurocode 7 provided acceptable reliability up to a moderate level of uncertainty when characteristic values are properly derived by incorporating the coefficient of variation of soil parameters. In contrast, reliance on mean or nominal values and following the traditional design method resulted in substantial reductions in reliability across a wider range of uncertainty. The study further demonstrated the notable effects of systematic error, relative sensitivity, and parameter correlation on design outcome. A calibrated spectrum of safety factors was proposed to support more informed reliability-based decisions under site-specific conditions. Overall, the findings underscored the importance of site-specific uncertainty quantification and the appropriate adjustment of safety factors to achieve robust and reliable geotechnical foundation design.</p>

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Reliability of Spread Footing Design Under Uncertainty in Geotechnical Parameters across Diverse Design Contexts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月9日

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  • Ayalew Gashaw Zemedkun,
  • Eleyas Assefa,
  • Siraj Mulugeta Assefa,
  • Lysandros Pantelidis,
  • Constantine I. Sachpazis

摘要

This study assessed the reliability of vertically loaded spread footing design by comparing the Eurocode 7 and traditional deterministic procedure with a probabilistic approach under soil parameter uncertainty. The analysis addressed challenges in regions with scarce geotechnical data and diverse design practices. A wide range of ground conditions was examined using First-Order Reliability Methods and Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the influence of soil parameter uncertainty on the reliability of foundation design. Results revealed that Eurocode 7 provided acceptable reliability up to a moderate level of uncertainty when characteristic values are properly derived by incorporating the coefficient of variation of soil parameters. In contrast, reliance on mean or nominal values and following the traditional design method resulted in substantial reductions in reliability across a wider range of uncertainty. The study further demonstrated the notable effects of systematic error, relative sensitivity, and parameter correlation on design outcome. A calibrated spectrum of safety factors was proposed to support more informed reliability-based decisions under site-specific conditions. Overall, the findings underscored the importance of site-specific uncertainty quantification and the appropriate adjustment of safety factors to achieve robust and reliable geotechnical foundation design.