Lurkers, propagator classification and clarifiers in rumor propagation: a study of dynamics analysis and optimal control strategies
摘要
With the advancement of society, rumor propagation has become increasingly complex and persistent due to individual heterogeneity and memory effects, posing serious challenges to social governance. To address this issue, a fractional-order SIR-C rumor propagation model is constructed by introducing a latent group and refining the classification of spreaders, thereby providing a more realistic representation of rumor dynamics. Within this framework, the basic reproduction number is obtained, and the existence as well as the local and global asymptotic stability of the rumor-free and endemic equilibria are rigorously analyzed. In addition, an optimal control problem is formulated and solved using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to determine the optimal intervention strategy. Furthermore, a numerical simulation is conducted based on the public opinion event surrounding the claim that “2022 China’s average mathematics score in the college entrance examination hit a record low.” The results show that the fractional-order model with an order of 0.6 more effectively captures memory effects and demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to traditional integer-order models. Moreover, the comparison of three control strategies indicates that multi-strategy interventions are significantly more effective than single measures in curbing rumor spread. These findings underscore the advantages of fractional-order modeling in studying public opinion dynamics and highlight the importance of integrated governance strategies.