<p>Understanding the emergence of tipping points is essential for safeguarding populations and maintaining ecosystem stability. This study investigates the influence of environmental stochasticity on tipping phenomena within a planktonic system. Plankton populations in aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations, driven by factors such as the bioavailability of essential nutrients, acid content, and aquatic thermal conditions. To explore these dynamics, we formulate and analyze a two-dimensional stochastic model involving toxin-producing phytoplankton and zooplankton. In the absence of noise, the deterministic system exhibits a rich array of bifurcations, including saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf, and BT bifurcations. A persistence and extinction analysis is conducted to assess species viability under varying ecological conditions. Bistability emerges between coexistence states and a zooplankton-free equilibrium, governed by toxin liberation rates. Furthermore, we identify three distinct types of noise-induced tipping: transitions between two coexistence states and shifts between coexistence and zooplankton extinction states. Our results underscore the critical role of initial species abundance in triggering these tipping events. To quantify the likelihood of state switching, we construct confidence ellipses and estimate threshold noise intensities using numerical simulations informed by stochastic sensitivity analysis. Overall, this study offers novel insights into the mechanisms underlying ecological tipping points and provides a foundation for identifying potential control strategies within the framework of plankton ecology.</p>