<p>We develop a unified operator-theoretic framework for SIR-type epidemic models structured simultaneously by age and space. The host population evolves in a bounded domain under a common diffusion mechanism, with age-dependent recovery and mortality, while transmission is encoded by a general nonlocal incidence functional that covers, as special cases, standard, saturated, and kernel-driven contact structures. In an abstract <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(C_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-semigroup setting, the infection subsystem is reformulated as a semilinear evolution equation on a convex subset of a Hilbert product space. On this state space we construct a nonlinear order-preserving map whose Fréchet derivative at the disease-free configuration is a positive, compact linear operator. This linearisation furnishes a genuine next-generation operator for nonlinear age-space systems, and its spectral radius defines a basic reproduction index <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Within this framework we prove global well-posedness, positivity, and invariance of the epidemic dynamics, and we show that <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> yields a sharp existence-nonexistence criterion for endemic equilibria and fully governs the stability of the disease-free state: <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\le 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>≤</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> precludes nontrivial equilibria and ensures global attraction of the disease-free profile, whereas <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0&gt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> guarantees the existence and local asymptotic stability of endemic equilibria under mild structural assumptions. As a proof of concept, we specialise the theory to a one-dimensional age-space SIR model with bilinear incidence, compute numerically the spectral threshold and the spectra of the linearised operators at both disease-free and endemic states, and perform time-dependent simulations in subcritical and supercritical regimes. These experiments provide the first quantitative confirmation, in this setting, of the spectral-radius threshold mechanism for nonlinear age-space epidemic systems.</p>

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A general analytical framework for nonlinear age-structured-spatial SIR epidemic models: threshold and stability results

  • Praveen Agarwal,
  • Yassine Sabbar

摘要

We develop a unified operator-theoretic framework for SIR-type epidemic models structured simultaneously by age and space. The host population evolves in a bounded domain under a common diffusion mechanism, with age-dependent recovery and mortality, while transmission is encoded by a general nonlocal incidence functional that covers, as special cases, standard, saturated, and kernel-driven contact structures. In an abstract \(C_0\) C 0 -semigroup setting, the infection subsystem is reformulated as a semilinear evolution equation on a convex subset of a Hilbert product space. On this state space we construct a nonlinear order-preserving map whose Fréchet derivative at the disease-free configuration is a positive, compact linear operator. This linearisation furnishes a genuine next-generation operator for nonlinear age-space systems, and its spectral radius defines a basic reproduction index \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 . Within this framework we prove global well-posedness, positivity, and invariance of the epidemic dynamics, and we show that \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 yields a sharp existence-nonexistence criterion for endemic equilibria and fully governs the stability of the disease-free state: \(\mathcal {R}_0\le 1\) R 0 1 precludes nontrivial equilibria and ensures global attraction of the disease-free profile, whereas \(\mathcal {R}_0>1\) R 0 > 1 guarantees the existence and local asymptotic stability of endemic equilibria under mild structural assumptions. As a proof of concept, we specialise the theory to a one-dimensional age-space SIR model with bilinear incidence, compute numerically the spectral threshold and the spectra of the linearised operators at both disease-free and endemic states, and perform time-dependent simulations in subcritical and supercritical regimes. These experiments provide the first quantitative confirmation, in this setting, of the spectral-radius threshold mechanism for nonlinear age-space epidemic systems.