Forest dynamics in environmental protection and fire spread: a mathematical model
摘要
The dynamics of the world’s forests face recurrent disturbances due to forest fires. In recent years, environmental changes and human activities have significantly increased the frequency of these events, transforming some regions into uninhabitable places. It is estimated that approximately 31% of the Earth’s land surface is exposed to a considerable frequency of forest fires. Forest disturbance due to fires is one of the main problems of forest management because of the potential losses of timber and non-timber resources. In order to develop sustainable forest management, this paper proposes a mathematical model to study the dynamics of forest areas in the face of fire spread. For this purpose, we consider a reaction-diffusion model together with the Holling type II functional response, where the fire spread parameter acts as a type of predator, while the measure of forest protection provided by the environment acts in favor of the forest. The paper includes an analytical analysis of the stability of equilibrium solutions. Specifically, a study of linear stability is carried out, and results of nonlinear stability and degenerate situations are provided by means of the construction of a Lyapunov function, both in the absence and in the presence of the diffusive term. Furthermore, it is extended to the study of the linear stability of a model based on traveling waves. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to corroborate the theoretical results. It is determined that fire propagation depends on the effectiveness of the protective measures provided by the environment. In addition, traveling wave solutions make it possible to model the dynamics of the forest area and predict its long-term evolution.