<p>We examine a general stochastic rumor model characterized by specific parameters that govern the interaction rates among individuals. Our model includes the <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3367_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="19" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="41" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\((\alpha , p)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>α</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>-probability variants of the well-known Daley–Kendall and Maki–Thompson models. In these variants, a spreader involved in an interaction attempts to transmit the rumor with probability <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3367_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="12" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="13" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(p\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>p</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>; if successful, any spreader encountering an individual already informed of the rumor has probability <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3367_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="10" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="14" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\alpha \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>α</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> of becoming a stifler. We prove that the maximum proportion of spreaders throughout the process converges almost surely, as the population size approaches&#xa0;<InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3367_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="10" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="21" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\infty \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>∞</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. For both the classical Daley–Kendall and Maki–Thompson models, the asymptotic proportion of the rumor peak is <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3367_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="129" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(1 - \log 2 \approx 0.3069\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <mo>log</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>≈</mo> <mn>0.3069</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>.</p>

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The maximum proportion of spreaders in stochastic rumor models

  • Elcio Lebensztayn,
  • Pablo M. Rodriguez

摘要

We examine a general stochastic rumor model characterized by specific parameters that govern the interaction rates among individuals. Our model includes the \((\alpha , p)\) ( α , p ) -probability variants of the well-known Daley–Kendall and Maki–Thompson models. In these variants, a spreader involved in an interaction attempts to transmit the rumor with probability \(p\) p ; if successful, any spreader encountering an individual already informed of the rumor has probability \(\alpha \) α of becoming a stifler. We prove that the maximum proportion of spreaders throughout the process converges almost surely, as the population size approaches  \(\infty \) . For both the classical Daley–Kendall and Maki–Thompson models, the asymptotic proportion of the rumor peak is \(1 - \log 2 \approx 0.3069\) 1 - log 2 0.3069 .