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<p>The security of China’s strategic critical mineral supply chains directly impacts economic resilience and industrial competitiveness, necessitating systematic vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper develops a global supply chain framework covering four stages—acquisition, trade, transportation, and demand—and three segments: export, logistics, and import. Using two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Coherent-Data Envelopment Analysis (CoDEA), it evaluates risks in China’s nickel ore import supply chain from 2013 to 2022, with the 2020 Indonesian export ban as a shock event for resilience measurement. Results show: (1) Significant volatility and persistently high risks from 2013 to 2022; (2) Distinct risk drivers across stages: resource acquisition showed intense fluctuations, trade exhibited strong variability, transportation had intermittent spikes, and demand initially rose then declined; (3) High resilience due to diversified import policies. The “risk identification-resilience measurement” method combines ex-ante and ex-post perspectives, fully considers the relationships among all stages of the supply chain, effectively identifies vulnerabilities, and provides decision-making support for ensuring supply chain security under geopolitical interference.</p>

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Risk Assessment and Resilience Measurement of Global Supply Chain of Strategic Critical Minerals in China-Taking Nickel as an Example

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Wei-Ming Gao,
  • San-Mang Wu,
  • Shan-Tong Li

摘要

The security of China’s strategic critical mineral supply chains directly impacts economic resilience and industrial competitiveness, necessitating systematic vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper develops a global supply chain framework covering four stages—acquisition, trade, transportation, and demand—and three segments: export, logistics, and import. Using two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Coherent-Data Envelopment Analysis (CoDEA), it evaluates risks in China’s nickel ore import supply chain from 2013 to 2022, with the 2020 Indonesian export ban as a shock event for resilience measurement. Results show: (1) Significant volatility and persistently high risks from 2013 to 2022; (2) Distinct risk drivers across stages: resource acquisition showed intense fluctuations, trade exhibited strong variability, transportation had intermittent spikes, and demand initially rose then declined; (3) High resilience due to diversified import policies. The “risk identification-resilience measurement” method combines ex-ante and ex-post perspectives, fully considers the relationships among all stages of the supply chain, effectively identifies vulnerabilities, and provides decision-making support for ensuring supply chain security under geopolitical interference.