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Aims <p>This study investigated the impact of epidemiological and demographic Changes on the health and economic burdens of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributed to non-optimal temperature.</p> Methods <p>Mortality data were from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, while economic data were sourced from multiple databases. The study analyzed global and regional trends in diabetes deaths, mortality rates, and years of life lost (YLL) due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2021, considering factors such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), gender, region, and age. The economic impact was assessed using YLL and labor market indicators in the 50 most populous countries.</p> Results <p>In 2021, 102,872 T2DM deaths globally were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, with low-temperature ASMR 1.61 times higher than high-temperature ASMR. From 1990 to 2021, Age-Standardized Mortality Rate(ASMR) for T2DM attributed to high and low temperatures increased significantly (84.17% and 24.06%) in low-to-middle SDI regions. Older adults had the highest mortality rate, and males faced higher risks than females. ASMR peaked at an SDI of 0.48 and decreased with increasing SDI. From 2022 to 2030, the female ASMR from T2DM attributed to non-optimal temperatures is projected to rise by 26.54% in Pakistan and 42.61% in Nepal.</p> Conclusion <p>Low temperatures remain a major mortality driver, with elderly males and low-SDI populations most at risk. Targeting young males with preventive measures can reduce future mortality. Countries with large populations and low SDI should prioritize temperature interventions to address climate change.</p>

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Economic burden, health burden and predictive analysis of diabetes attributed to non-optimal temperature in global from 1990 to 2030

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月15日

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  • Xudong Li,
  • Yajie Wang,
  • Tiancheng Zhang,
  • Weiqing Rang,
  • Yan Liu

摘要

Aims

This study investigated the impact of epidemiological and demographic Changes on the health and economic burdens of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributed to non-optimal temperature.

Methods

Mortality data were from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, while economic data were sourced from multiple databases. The study analyzed global and regional trends in diabetes deaths, mortality rates, and years of life lost (YLL) due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2021, considering factors such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), gender, region, and age. The economic impact was assessed using YLL and labor market indicators in the 50 most populous countries.

Results

In 2021, 102,872 T2DM deaths globally were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, with low-temperature ASMR 1.61 times higher than high-temperature ASMR. From 1990 to 2021, Age-Standardized Mortality Rate(ASMR) for T2DM attributed to high and low temperatures increased significantly (84.17% and 24.06%) in low-to-middle SDI regions. Older adults had the highest mortality rate, and males faced higher risks than females. ASMR peaked at an SDI of 0.48 and decreased with increasing SDI. From 2022 to 2030, the female ASMR from T2DM attributed to non-optimal temperatures is projected to rise by 26.54% in Pakistan and 42.61% in Nepal.

Conclusion

Low temperatures remain a major mortality driver, with elderly males and low-SDI populations most at risk. Targeting young males with preventive measures can reduce future mortality. Countries with large populations and low SDI should prioritize temperature interventions to address climate change.