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<p>This study aims to unravel the complex hydrological dynamics of the Jhelum River Basin by analyzing long-term discharge trends (1975–2023) across six key gauge stations. The research uses advanced statistical techniques, including the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, Pettitt test, Buishand’s Range test, Standard Homogeneity test and Von Neumann ratio test, to identify critical shifts and patterns in seasonal and annual discharge. The Mann–Kendall test revealed significant declines in discharge, particularly in October at Ramunshibagh (tau: −0.31, <i>p</i>-value: 0.002) and August at Sangam (tau: −0.21, <i>p</i>-value: 0.030). Quantification using Sen’s slope highlighted steep reductions of up to −59.0 m<sup>3</sup>/s per decade in August at Ramunshibagh and −83.7 m<sup>3</sup>/s in July at Pampore. Sen’s Slope Test results indicate significant decreasing trends in discharge during summer and autumn at most stations, with the steepest declines observed in July and August. The magnitude of slope values suggests notable reductions at stations such as Sangam and Pampore. The Pettitt test identified 1997 as a pivotal year of hydrological shifts, with statistically significant change points K-value: 428, <i>p</i>-value &lt; 0.0001). Homogeneity testing through the Standard Homogeneity Test and Buishand’s Range Test reveals breaks in data across multiple stations, particularly around 1997, indicating a significant shift in the discharge pattern. Von Neumann’s Test results highlight periods of randomness and autocorrelation in the data, particularly during summer and autumn. Spatial analysis also showed variability in discharge patterns attributed to local relief, glacial contributions and climate factors. This research reveals significant declining discharge trends in the Jhelum River Basin, signalling critical risks to water availability and agricultural productivity. The findings provide valuable insights for developing sustainable water management strategies and climate resilience plans, which can serve as a model for other regions facing similar hydrological challenges worldwide.</p>

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Discharge Patterns and Trends in the Jhelum River Basin: A Statistical and Spatial Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月30日

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  • Humaira Hamid,
  • Sandeep Samantaray

摘要

This study aims to unravel the complex hydrological dynamics of the Jhelum River Basin by analyzing long-term discharge trends (1975–2023) across six key gauge stations. The research uses advanced statistical techniques, including the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, Pettitt test, Buishand’s Range test, Standard Homogeneity test and Von Neumann ratio test, to identify critical shifts and patterns in seasonal and annual discharge. The Mann–Kendall test revealed significant declines in discharge, particularly in October at Ramunshibagh (tau: −0.31, p-value: 0.002) and August at Sangam (tau: −0.21, p-value: 0.030). Quantification using Sen’s slope highlighted steep reductions of up to −59.0 m3/s per decade in August at Ramunshibagh and −83.7 m3/s in July at Pampore. Sen’s Slope Test results indicate significant decreasing trends in discharge during summer and autumn at most stations, with the steepest declines observed in July and August. The magnitude of slope values suggests notable reductions at stations such as Sangam and Pampore. The Pettitt test identified 1997 as a pivotal year of hydrological shifts, with statistically significant change points K-value: 428, p-value < 0.0001). Homogeneity testing through the Standard Homogeneity Test and Buishand’s Range Test reveals breaks in data across multiple stations, particularly around 1997, indicating a significant shift in the discharge pattern. Von Neumann’s Test results highlight periods of randomness and autocorrelation in the data, particularly during summer and autumn. Spatial analysis also showed variability in discharge patterns attributed to local relief, glacial contributions and climate factors. This research reveals significant declining discharge trends in the Jhelum River Basin, signalling critical risks to water availability and agricultural productivity. The findings provide valuable insights for developing sustainable water management strategies and climate resilience plans, which can serve as a model for other regions facing similar hydrological challenges worldwide.