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<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as one of the most devastating infectious disease in the history of mankind. Though the collective efforts of various institutions across the globe have potentially managed to control the pandemic, the infection still continues to pose a public health risk. In this paper, we develop a modified SEIQHRD model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 across a region. The basic reproduction number, which measures the potential spread of the virus is computed. Disease free equilibrium point for the model is shown to be locally as well as globally asymptotically stable whenever <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40010_2025_929_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="52" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 \le 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>≤</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Further, existence of endemic equilibrium along with its local and global asymptotic stability is proved when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40010_2025_929_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0&gt;1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the associated parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulation is done for the formulated model that demonstrates and validates the theoretical results derived in the paper.</p>

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Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Across a Region: A Mathematical Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月14日

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  • Ruchi Kaur,
  • Prabhanshi,
  • Ishita Jhamb,
  • Pratibha Verma

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as one of the most devastating infectious disease in the history of mankind. Though the collective efforts of various institutions across the globe have potentially managed to control the pandemic, the infection still continues to pose a public health risk. In this paper, we develop a modified SEIQHRD model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 across a region. The basic reproduction number, which measures the potential spread of the virus is computed. Disease free equilibrium point for the model is shown to be locally as well as globally asymptotically stable whenever \(R_0 \le 1\) R 0 ≤ 1 . Further, existence of endemic equilibrium along with its local and global asymptotic stability is proved when \(R_0>1\) R 0 > 1 . Sensitivity analysis is performed for the associated parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulation is done for the formulated model that demonstrates and validates the theoretical results derived in the paper.