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<p>Selecting a suitable probability distribution for accurate disaggregation of daily moderate rainfall using Random Bartlett Lewis (RBL) model is important in the field of flood forecasting, urban drainage infrastructure and climate change studies. This study evaluates the performance of the RBL model with exponential, gamma and Weibull distribution for disaggregating daily moderate rainfall into hourly rainfall using Q-Q plot and statistical indicators. The results of the Q-Q plot show that the Gamma and Weibull distributions perform well for moderate rainfall, indicating higher accuracy in disaggregation, whereas the exponential distribution tends to underestimate rainfall. The Gamma and Weibull distributions also preserved statistics like mean, variance, Proportion of dry (Pdry) and Lag-1 autocorrelation at hourly scale, while exponential distribution underestimate variance and overestimate Lag-1 autocorrelation. Overall, Gamma and Weibull distributions are more suitable for moderate rainfall disaggregation, highlighting their potential for enhancing hydrological modeling and climate change impact assessments.</p>

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Simulation of Daily Rainfall Patterns for Moderate Rainfall Using Random Bartlett Lewis (RBL) Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Anisha Prajapati,
  • Thendiyath Roshni

摘要

Selecting a suitable probability distribution for accurate disaggregation of daily moderate rainfall using Random Bartlett Lewis (RBL) model is important in the field of flood forecasting, urban drainage infrastructure and climate change studies. This study evaluates the performance of the RBL model with exponential, gamma and Weibull distribution for disaggregating daily moderate rainfall into hourly rainfall using Q-Q plot and statistical indicators. The results of the Q-Q plot show that the Gamma and Weibull distributions perform well for moderate rainfall, indicating higher accuracy in disaggregation, whereas the exponential distribution tends to underestimate rainfall. The Gamma and Weibull distributions also preserved statistics like mean, variance, Proportion of dry (Pdry) and Lag-1 autocorrelation at hourly scale, while exponential distribution underestimate variance and overestimate Lag-1 autocorrelation. Overall, Gamma and Weibull distributions are more suitable for moderate rainfall disaggregation, highlighting their potential for enhancing hydrological modeling and climate change impact assessments.