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<p>This study assesses the impact of climate change on solar radiation using the Change Factor Method, employing an ensemble of five statistically downscaled GCM simulations. The projected mean downward solar radiation from 2021 to 2100, based on the ensemble average for each RCP, shows a decreasing trend compared to historical values, with the most significant shift observed in the RCP 8.5 scenario and the least in RCP 2.6. Results indicate a decline in sunlight across the entire Bhima basin (study area), with the greatest alterations in downward solar radiation occurring in the near future (2021–2040) rather than the distant future (2081–2100). Significant changes are observed particularly during 2021–2040 and 2061–2080. The box-and-whisker plot representing GCM and scenario uncertainty demonstrates higher confidence in forecasts for the nearer future (2021–2040) compared to the distant future (2081–2100). Median deviations range from − 1.05 to − 1.5%. These findings highlight the necessity for evidence-based decision-making in climate adaptation and resource management. By effectively communicating these results to policymakers, this study supports the development of resilient solar energy planning and climate mitigation strategies in the Bhima sub-basin.</p>

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Projections of Solar Radiation in the Bhima Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios Using the Statistical Downscaling Method

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Rajashekhar S. Laddimath,
  • Nagraj S. Patil

摘要

This study assesses the impact of climate change on solar radiation using the Change Factor Method, employing an ensemble of five statistically downscaled GCM simulations. The projected mean downward solar radiation from 2021 to 2100, based on the ensemble average for each RCP, shows a decreasing trend compared to historical values, with the most significant shift observed in the RCP 8.5 scenario and the least in RCP 2.6. Results indicate a decline in sunlight across the entire Bhima basin (study area), with the greatest alterations in downward solar radiation occurring in the near future (2021–2040) rather than the distant future (2081–2100). Significant changes are observed particularly during 2021–2040 and 2061–2080. The box-and-whisker plot representing GCM and scenario uncertainty demonstrates higher confidence in forecasts for the nearer future (2021–2040) compared to the distant future (2081–2100). Median deviations range from − 1.05 to − 1.5%. These findings highlight the necessity for evidence-based decision-making in climate adaptation and resource management. By effectively communicating these results to policymakers, this study supports the development of resilient solar energy planning and climate mitigation strategies in the Bhima sub-basin.