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<p>In 2001, Kleeberg and Schumann proposed a convention for determining flood discharges for return periods over 100 years and up to 10 000 years. This was based on maximising the skewness of the Pearson III distribution (P3V) based on an evaluation of 1,169 gauging stations in Germany. As this approach was no longer up to date due to the further development of statistical flood methods, but also due to extreme floods that have occurred in various river basins in Germany in the meantime, a new calculation approach was sought. On the basis of 700 observation series at German gauging stations up to the year 2023, two methods were developed: an update of the Kleeberg-Schumann approach using the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) and the determination of the L-skewness as the 95 % quantile of the corresponding values estimated from the observation series, and a differentiated approach for the estimation of the maximised skewness, taking into account the observed maximum values of the peak discharges.</p>

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Schätzung von Hochwasserabflüssen sehr hoher Jährlichkeiten

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月10日

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  • Andreas Schumann,
  • Svenja Fischer,
  • Ulf Winkler

摘要

In 2001, Kleeberg and Schumann proposed a convention for determining flood discharges for return periods over 100 years and up to 10 000 years. This was based on maximising the skewness of the Pearson III distribution (P3V) based on an evaluation of 1,169 gauging stations in Germany. As this approach was no longer up to date due to the further development of statistical flood methods, but also due to extreme floods that have occurred in various river basins in Germany in the meantime, a new calculation approach was sought. On the basis of 700 observation series at German gauging stations up to the year 2023, two methods were developed: an update of the Kleeberg-Schumann approach using the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) and the determination of the L-skewness as the 95 % quantile of the corresponding values estimated from the observation series, and a differentiated approach for the estimation of the maximised skewness, taking into account the observed maximum values of the peak discharges.