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<p>Climate-driven shifts in hydrological regimes are expected to have pronounced effects on river flow conditions downstream of hydropower plants (HPPs). This study analyses the combined impact of climate change and hydropower operations on downstream flow regimes of six gauged lowland rivers in Lithuania. River discharge was simulated using the HBV rainfall–runoff model, driven by downscaled outputs from 14 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 scenarios for three periods: reference (1995–2014), near future (2031–2050), and far future (2081–2100). To assess hydropower-induced flow alterations, simulated inflows were coupled with three hypothetical HPP turbine operational regimes (minimum, intermediate and maximum). Downstream flow variabilities were evaluated using Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA), linking them to reservoir and HPP technical characteristics with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results show a consistent decline in both annual and warm-season discharges across all studied rivers, with the greatest reductions projected under SSP3–7.0. Combined IHA and PCA results highlight the role of turbine and reservoir characteristics in shaping downstream flows, with higher-threshold operations leading to more pronounced flow alterations. Under more severe climate scenarios, reduced inflows and prolonged reservoir refill periods are expected to constrain HPP operations. By quantifying hydrological alteration under combined climate and operational scenarios, this study demonstrated the declining operational flexibility of small HPPs under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions. The findings provide a hydrological basis for adaptive turbine operation and environmental flow regulation, supporting the development of flexible, data-informed HPP governance strategies.</p>

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Sustaining river flow regimes under hydropower regulation and climate change: a modelling approach for lowland rivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

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  • K. Gurjazkaitė,
  • V. Akstinas,
  • D. Meilutytė-Lukauskienė,
  • D. Jakimavičius

摘要

Climate-driven shifts in hydrological regimes are expected to have pronounced effects on river flow conditions downstream of hydropower plants (HPPs). This study analyses the combined impact of climate change and hydropower operations on downstream flow regimes of six gauged lowland rivers in Lithuania. River discharge was simulated using the HBV rainfall–runoff model, driven by downscaled outputs from 14 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 scenarios for three periods: reference (1995–2014), near future (2031–2050), and far future (2081–2100). To assess hydropower-induced flow alterations, simulated inflows were coupled with three hypothetical HPP turbine operational regimes (minimum, intermediate and maximum). Downstream flow variabilities were evaluated using Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA), linking them to reservoir and HPP technical characteristics with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results show a consistent decline in both annual and warm-season discharges across all studied rivers, with the greatest reductions projected under SSP3–7.0. Combined IHA and PCA results highlight the role of turbine and reservoir characteristics in shaping downstream flows, with higher-threshold operations leading to more pronounced flow alterations. Under more severe climate scenarios, reduced inflows and prolonged reservoir refill periods are expected to constrain HPP operations. By quantifying hydrological alteration under combined climate and operational scenarios, this study demonstrated the declining operational flexibility of small HPPs under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions. The findings provide a hydrological basis for adaptive turbine operation and environmental flow regulation, supporting the development of flexible, data-informed HPP governance strategies.