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<p>The western Liaoning Province agro-pastoral ecotone, located on the transitional margin of the northern agro-pastoral zone, has experienced significant substantial climate and land-use changes over the past 30&#xa0;years (1990–2020). This study investigates the spatial and temporal changes in climate and land-use, assesses key ecosystem services, and quantifies the impacts of these changes on ecosystem service provision. In addition, we project future land-use patterns and ecosystem service outcomes under multiple scenarios using the PLUS and InVEST models. The results show that habitat quality has consistently declined, particularly along riverbanks and urban fringes, while carbon storage also decreased significantly during the study period. Soil retention capacity in hilly regions weakened, whereas high-altitude areas maintained relatively high levels of both carbon storage and soil retention. Spatial detector analysis confirms that both climate variability and land-use change exert significant and differentiated influences on ecosystem services. The study’s contributions lie in its comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem service changes in a vulnerable yet strategically important region, providing a scientific basis for sustainable land-use planning and ecological management. Future scenario projections indicate a continued decline in carbon storage, accompanied by modest improvements in habitat quality and water yield, while soil conservation capacity is expected to decrease sharply. Together, these findings underscore the complex interaction between land-use change and climate drivers and offer valuable insights for regional ecological conservation and policy-making.</p>

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Impacts of climate and land-use change on ecosystem services in the agro-pastoral ecotone of western Liaoning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月24日

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  • Li Y.,
  • Ye D.,
  • Han X.,
  • Xia S.,
  • Jin J.,
  • Jiang X.,
  • Lv L.

摘要

The western Liaoning Province agro-pastoral ecotone, located on the transitional margin of the northern agro-pastoral zone, has experienced significant substantial climate and land-use changes over the past 30 years (1990–2020). This study investigates the spatial and temporal changes in climate and land-use, assesses key ecosystem services, and quantifies the impacts of these changes on ecosystem service provision. In addition, we project future land-use patterns and ecosystem service outcomes under multiple scenarios using the PLUS and InVEST models. The results show that habitat quality has consistently declined, particularly along riverbanks and urban fringes, while carbon storage also decreased significantly during the study period. Soil retention capacity in hilly regions weakened, whereas high-altitude areas maintained relatively high levels of both carbon storage and soil retention. Spatial detector analysis confirms that both climate variability and land-use change exert significant and differentiated influences on ecosystem services. The study’s contributions lie in its comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem service changes in a vulnerable yet strategically important region, providing a scientific basis for sustainable land-use planning and ecological management. Future scenario projections indicate a continued decline in carbon storage, accompanied by modest improvements in habitat quality and water yield, while soil conservation capacity is expected to decrease sharply. Together, these findings underscore the complex interaction between land-use change and climate drivers and offer valuable insights for regional ecological conservation and policy-making.