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<p>Qualitative assessment of ecosystem health and the factors influencing it is important to ensure the selection of effective, sustainable territorial development measures. The study aimed to assess spatiotemporal changes in land use, land urbanization, and ecosystem health across Lithuania during 2000–2018 and determine the main driving forces. The ecosystem health was evaluated using the three-dimensional Vigor–Organization–Resilience (VOR) framework. Significant changes in land use were related to decreased agricultural areas and increased semi-natural vegetation areas, with a slight increase in artificial surfaces and an increase in land urbanization. Land urbanization increased slightly from 3.17 to 3.27%, particularly around cities. Ecosystem vigor and organization were generally high across the country, yet ecosystem resilience remained low to medium in most areas. Between 2000 and 2018, the ecosystem health index (EHI) declined from 0.79 to 0.75, indicating a gradual reduction in overall ecosystem condition. Hot spot and cold spot analyses revealed increasing spatial heterogeneity: cold spots expanded throughout the central lowlands and major cities, while hot spots concentrated in the eastern uplands. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s <i>I</i>) confirmed significant clustering of ecosystem health, though the degree of clustering slightly decreased over time. Geodetector analysis identified land use intensity, population density, and the proportion of urban and natural land as dominant drivers of ecosystem health. Among them, land use intensity exerted the strongest and increasing influence over time. These findings highlight the growing spatial unevenness of ecosystem health in Lithuania and underscore the need for integrative land management policies that balance urban development with ecosystem sustainability.</p>

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Ecosystem health assessment in Lithuania based on land use patterns and key driving factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

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  • G. Dabašinskas,
  • R. Krikštolaitis,
  • G. Sujetovienė

摘要

Qualitative assessment of ecosystem health and the factors influencing it is important to ensure the selection of effective, sustainable territorial development measures. The study aimed to assess spatiotemporal changes in land use, land urbanization, and ecosystem health across Lithuania during 2000–2018 and determine the main driving forces. The ecosystem health was evaluated using the three-dimensional Vigor–Organization–Resilience (VOR) framework. Significant changes in land use were related to decreased agricultural areas and increased semi-natural vegetation areas, with a slight increase in artificial surfaces and an increase in land urbanization. Land urbanization increased slightly from 3.17 to 3.27%, particularly around cities. Ecosystem vigor and organization were generally high across the country, yet ecosystem resilience remained low to medium in most areas. Between 2000 and 2018, the ecosystem health index (EHI) declined from 0.79 to 0.75, indicating a gradual reduction in overall ecosystem condition. Hot spot and cold spot analyses revealed increasing spatial heterogeneity: cold spots expanded throughout the central lowlands and major cities, while hot spots concentrated in the eastern uplands. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I) confirmed significant clustering of ecosystem health, though the degree of clustering slightly decreased over time. Geodetector analysis identified land use intensity, population density, and the proportion of urban and natural land as dominant drivers of ecosystem health. Among them, land use intensity exerted the strongest and increasing influence over time. These findings highlight the growing spatial unevenness of ecosystem health in Lithuania and underscore the need for integrative land management policies that balance urban development with ecosystem sustainability.