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<p>This study investigates the nonlinear and asymmetric effects of economic growth, urbanization, climate variability—specifically temperature and precipitation—and renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in Finland from 1990 to 2023. The analysis employs the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression framework to capture both asymmetric long- and short-run relationships and heterogeneity across emission regimes. Results indicate that positive temperature shocks and increased precipitation significantly reduce long-run carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to lower heating demand and greater hydropower output. In contrast, colder and drier conditions show limited or delayed impacts, reflecting Finland’s energy efficiency and diversified energy mix. Economic growth and urbanization exert strong positive effects on emissions, whereas renewable energy consumption reduces emissions in an asymmetric manner. Short-run estimates reveal that negative temperature shocks and rapid urban expansion increase emissions, while precipitation yields immediate reductions. The Quantile-on-Quantile analysis highlights that the influence of climate factors varies across low- and high-emission regimes, emphasizing distributional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that Finland’s transition toward carbon neutrality depends on adaptive infrastructure, continued investment in renewable energy, and sustainable urban planning. Policy measures should account for nonlinear and heterogeneous effects of climate variability to achieve effective emission mitigation.</p>

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Does climate matter for carbon emissions in cold economies? A nonlinear approach for Finland

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月27日

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  • I. Georgescu,
  • J. Kinnunen

摘要

This study investigates the nonlinear and asymmetric effects of economic growth, urbanization, climate variability—specifically temperature and precipitation—and renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in Finland from 1990 to 2023. The analysis employs the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression framework to capture both asymmetric long- and short-run relationships and heterogeneity across emission regimes. Results indicate that positive temperature shocks and increased precipitation significantly reduce long-run carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to lower heating demand and greater hydropower output. In contrast, colder and drier conditions show limited or delayed impacts, reflecting Finland’s energy efficiency and diversified energy mix. Economic growth and urbanization exert strong positive effects on emissions, whereas renewable energy consumption reduces emissions in an asymmetric manner. Short-run estimates reveal that negative temperature shocks and rapid urban expansion increase emissions, while precipitation yields immediate reductions. The Quantile-on-Quantile analysis highlights that the influence of climate factors varies across low- and high-emission regimes, emphasizing distributional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that Finland’s transition toward carbon neutrality depends on adaptive infrastructure, continued investment in renewable energy, and sustainable urban planning. Policy measures should account for nonlinear and heterogeneous effects of climate variability to achieve effective emission mitigation.