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<p>Agricultural pests have caused significant economic and environmental impacts on major commercially essential crops. The cicada <i>Quesada gigas</i> (Hemiptera: Cicadidae), commonly known as the coffee cicada, is a significant pest in coffee cultivation across the Americas. Using the MaxEnt algorithm, we predicted the potential global distribution of <i>Q. gigas</i> under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090. The model exhibited excellent performance (AUC = 0.903, CBI = 0.868, TSS = 0.881), highlighting isothermality and precipitation of the wettest month as the main predictors, with relative contributions of 38.2% and 36.3%, respectively. However, the permutation importance analysis indicated that the coldest month’s mean temperature was the most influential variable on the species’ potential distribution, contributing to 56.7%. Currently, <i>Q. gigas</i> predominantly occupies tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, with high climatic suitability in major coffee-producing areas, such as southeastern Brazil. Future projections indicate a progressive reduction in highly suitable areas, particularly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with estimated decreases of 3.55% by 2050, 4.28% by 2070, and 2.67% by 2090. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, projections suggest greater stability in climatically suitable areas for the pest, with estimated reductions of 0.97% by 2050, 3.57% by 2070, and 2.83% by 2090. Regarding phytosanitary risks, the model identified potentially favorable climatic conditions in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. However, there are no confirmed records of the pest in these continents to date. Climate change may partially restrict the potential habitat of <i>Q. gigas</i>, but its persistence in major coffee-producing regions underscores the need for preventive monitoring strategies. This study offers valuable insights for the adaptive management of pests and the development of biosecurity policies in response to future climate scenarios.</p>

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Quesada gigas Under Current and Future Climate Conditions Using MaxEnt

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

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  • Marinaldo Loures-Ferreira,
  • Gildriano Soares de Oliveira,
  • André Medeiros de Andrade,
  • Francilene Lima Ferreira,
  • Jackson Paulo Silva Souza,
  • Ricardo Siqueira da Silva

摘要

Agricultural pests have caused significant economic and environmental impacts on major commercially essential crops. The cicada Quesada gigas (Hemiptera: Cicadidae), commonly known as the coffee cicada, is a significant pest in coffee cultivation across the Americas. Using the MaxEnt algorithm, we predicted the potential global distribution of Q. gigas under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090. The model exhibited excellent performance (AUC = 0.903, CBI = 0.868, TSS = 0.881), highlighting isothermality and precipitation of the wettest month as the main predictors, with relative contributions of 38.2% and 36.3%, respectively. However, the permutation importance analysis indicated that the coldest month’s mean temperature was the most influential variable on the species’ potential distribution, contributing to 56.7%. Currently, Q. gigas predominantly occupies tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, with high climatic suitability in major coffee-producing areas, such as southeastern Brazil. Future projections indicate a progressive reduction in highly suitable areas, particularly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with estimated decreases of 3.55% by 2050, 4.28% by 2070, and 2.67% by 2090. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, projections suggest greater stability in climatically suitable areas for the pest, with estimated reductions of 0.97% by 2050, 3.57% by 2070, and 2.83% by 2090. Regarding phytosanitary risks, the model identified potentially favorable climatic conditions in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. However, there are no confirmed records of the pest in these continents to date. Climate change may partially restrict the potential habitat of Q. gigas, but its persistence in major coffee-producing regions underscores the need for preventive monitoring strategies. This study offers valuable insights for the adaptive management of pests and the development of biosecurity policies in response to future climate scenarios.