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<p><i>Anoplophora horsfieldii</i> (Hope, 1843) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a destructive wood-boring pest that causes extensive damage to forestry resources and threatens the health of forest ecosystems. With the accelerating effects of climate change, its spread and potential invasion could severely affect forest ecosystems and threaten the timber industry. In this study, we constructed ensemble models to predict suitable areas for <i>A. horsfieldii</i> in China under current and future climate change, and analyzed the effects of bioclimatic factors on its habitat distribution. The results indicate that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.982 and 0.865, respectively, and the bioclimatic factors affecting the distribution of <i>A. horsfieldii</i> were the mean diurnal range (Bio2), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). In the current period, the suitable habitat of <i>A. horsfieldii</i> is concentrated in central and southern China, and it is expected that climate change in the future will significantly change its distribution pattern, with an increase of 16.09% to 74.74% in suitable habitat and shifting towards higher latitudes. Additionally, the analysis of the multivariate environmental similarity surfaces and most dissimilar variables confirmed that the bioclimatic conditions of future expansion areas closely resemble those of the current distribution. These findings elucidate the response patterns of <i>A. horsfieldii</i> to climate change and provide a scientific basis for regional prevention and control strategies. The study provides crucial insights into mitigating the potential threats posed by this invasive pest to forest ecosystem stability and economic sustainability.</p>

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Climate Change Enhances the Spread and Threat of Anoplophora horsfieldii (Hope, 1843) in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月13日

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  • Liang Zhang,
  • Chaokun Yang,
  • Guanglin Xie,
  • Ping Wang,
  • Wenkai Wang

摘要

Anoplophora horsfieldii (Hope, 1843) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a destructive wood-boring pest that causes extensive damage to forestry resources and threatens the health of forest ecosystems. With the accelerating effects of climate change, its spread and potential invasion could severely affect forest ecosystems and threaten the timber industry. In this study, we constructed ensemble models to predict suitable areas for A. horsfieldii in China under current and future climate change, and analyzed the effects of bioclimatic factors on its habitat distribution. The results indicate that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.982 and 0.865, respectively, and the bioclimatic factors affecting the distribution of A. horsfieldii were the mean diurnal range (Bio2), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). In the current period, the suitable habitat of A. horsfieldii is concentrated in central and southern China, and it is expected that climate change in the future will significantly change its distribution pattern, with an increase of 16.09% to 74.74% in suitable habitat and shifting towards higher latitudes. Additionally, the analysis of the multivariate environmental similarity surfaces and most dissimilar variables confirmed that the bioclimatic conditions of future expansion areas closely resemble those of the current distribution. These findings elucidate the response patterns of A. horsfieldii to climate change and provide a scientific basis for regional prevention and control strategies. The study provides crucial insights into mitigating the potential threats posed by this invasive pest to forest ecosystem stability and economic sustainability.