On Estimation of Parity Progression Ratio and Mean Closed Birth Intervals Utilizing Data on Open Birth Interval of Different Birth Cohorts
摘要
Fertility is one of the most significant determinants of population dynamics and growth. It is also necessary to obtain estimates of fertility rate, trends, and patterns of a country/region in order to plan and monitor the socioeconomic development. The Parity Progression Ratio (PPR) has acquired dominant place in the study of fertility which gives the probability that a woman giving birth of a given order at a time will ever proceed to the next birth. In this study, we have proposed a methodology to get estimates of PPR values for different parities by utilising data on only the open birth interval (OBI) of different birth cohorts. This methodology also provides a procedure to get estimates of mean closed birth intervals (CBIs). We have applied this methodology to the fifth round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-V) data to get estimates of PPR values and mean closed birth intervals (CBIs) up to parity three. Further, a comparison between the estimates obtained using the proposed methodology and those derived from earlier approaches demonstrates that our method yields consistent results across different parities. Additionally, simulation studies have also been done to assess the efficiency and reliability of the proposed methodology.