<p>A continuous-time Markov model is developed to account for transitions between discrete states of the infected and uninfected disease status of individuals in a population. Home-based quarantining of the infected individual is considered as one of the states of the model. The mean survival time, the mean hospitalisation time and the mean home isolation time have been derived using matrix calculus. Theoretical relationships between transition probabilities, mean times in state, and transition intensities have been obtained. Extended continuous time Markov model is also discussed by taking into account the age of the infected individual that could prove useful in analysing the impact of different age groups on the transition probabilities. Analysis is then conducted to understand elasticity and sensitivity of parameters. Computations have been shown keeping in mind a general hospital data, and some individuals could be under quarantine.</p>

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Continuous Time Markov Modeling and Analysis for Infectious Disease Spread

  • Sujata Sukhija,
  • Rajeev Kumar,
  • Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao

摘要

A continuous-time Markov model is developed to account for transitions between discrete states of the infected and uninfected disease status of individuals in a population. Home-based quarantining of the infected individual is considered as one of the states of the model. The mean survival time, the mean hospitalisation time and the mean home isolation time have been derived using matrix calculus. Theoretical relationships between transition probabilities, mean times in state, and transition intensities have been obtained. Extended continuous time Markov model is also discussed by taking into account the age of the infected individual that could prove useful in analysing the impact of different age groups on the transition probabilities. Analysis is then conducted to understand elasticity and sensitivity of parameters. Computations have been shown keeping in mind a general hospital data, and some individuals could be under quarantine.