Functional modeling and dynamics of the global copper cash cost curve
摘要
The cash cost curve (C1) plays a pivotal role in understanding the economic structure and competitiveness of the global copper mining industry. This paper presents a functional modeling approach to the C1 cost curve from 2000 to 2022, using global mine-level data to estimate the evolution of cost distribution and industry supply responsiveness. A parametric model is applied annually to estimate the base cost, shape, and slope of the industry cost curve. The study finds that the functional form of the cost curve has shifted over time ‒ reflecting likely changes in ore grades, input prices, labor productivity, technological innovation and others. We provide evidence of increasing stability in parameters of the cost curve since 2014, following a period of high volatility during the 2000s. The results also reveal a moderate convergence of C1 cost curve. We compute time-varying supply elasticities and identify significant differences in responsiveness across cost quartiles. These findings have implications for industry competitiveness, fiscal resilience, and project viability under different price regimes. The paper contributes to the literature by combining microeconomic cost modeling with an empirical analysis of structural industry trends. This enhances the understanding of supply dynamics in mineral markets and provides insights for strategic decision-making by firms and policymakers.