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<p>This manuscript investigates the non-linear relationship between extractive natural resource endowment, subnational economic growth, and three pivotal determinants of regional diversification—industrial activity, entrepreneurship, and foreign direct investment (FDI)—across 24 Tunisian governorates from 2015 to 2021. The econometric framework utilizes Hansen’s (1999) fixed-effects panel threshold model, supplemented by the two-step System GMM threshold estimator developed by Blundell and Bond (1998), incorporating Windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction for robust inference. The contribution of this paper resides in demonstrating that the impact of natural resources on economic growth and diversification trajectories in Tunisia is not merely a function of resource endowment. Rather, this relationship is conditioned by the historical accumulation of public infrastructure, proxied by road density at the governorate level. Consequently, we identify a mechanism of infrastructural conditionality, suggesting that legacy public investment decisions may paradoxically exacerbate the path dependency of mining-intensive regions on extractive industries, entrenching structural specialisation in the extractive sector and constraining economic diversification.</p>

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Extractive industries, economic diversification and local development: the case of Tunisia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Hanen Eddaly

摘要

This manuscript investigates the non-linear relationship between extractive natural resource endowment, subnational economic growth, and three pivotal determinants of regional diversification—industrial activity, entrepreneurship, and foreign direct investment (FDI)—across 24 Tunisian governorates from 2015 to 2021. The econometric framework utilizes Hansen’s (1999) fixed-effects panel threshold model, supplemented by the two-step System GMM threshold estimator developed by Blundell and Bond (1998), incorporating Windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction for robust inference. The contribution of this paper resides in demonstrating that the impact of natural resources on economic growth and diversification trajectories in Tunisia is not merely a function of resource endowment. Rather, this relationship is conditioned by the historical accumulation of public infrastructure, proxied by road density at the governorate level. Consequently, we identify a mechanism of infrastructural conditionality, suggesting that legacy public investment decisions may paradoxically exacerbate the path dependency of mining-intensive regions on extractive industries, entrenching structural specialisation in the extractive sector and constraining economic diversification.