From oil prices to core inflation: role of Ball and Mankiw’s supply shocks from a new NAIRU estimation for Colombia
摘要
This study estimates the time-varying NAIRU (2011M1–2023M2) for Colombia by incorporating Ball and Mankiw supply shocks into a state-space model with a Kalman filter and compares their performance against traditional commodity‒price shocks (oil and oil‒metals). Using monthly data on core inflation, unemployment, and commodity price indices, we validate our empirical strategy with a structural VAR and assess explanatory power through Markov-switching VAR models with historical variance decomposition. The results indicate that Ball and Mankiw shocks provide a reliable fit for the NAIRU, comparable to traditional shocks, with some advantages in capturing high-frequency variations and explaining core inflation fluctuations during volatile periods. This suggests they may be particularly suitable for short-term analysis and real-time policy assessment. However, their key advantage lies in their sensitivity to domestic economic disruptions, which translates into a responsive unemployment gap and a high explanatory power for core inflation fluctuations, as evidenced by historical variance decomposition. While all specifications confirm a significant negative impact of the unemployment gap on core inflation, tests show that by capturing high-frequency variations, Ball and Mankiw shocks provide a comparatively better fit for the inflation response to the unemployment gap, particularly during volatile periods. This study concludes that Ball and Mankiw shocks are preferable for very short-term analysis and more precise NAIRU estimation. This offers additional insights for policymakers seeking timely assessments of labor market slack, complementing traditional approaches.