<p>Intensifying and increasingly complex geopolitical competition over critical minerals has heightened the challenges of ensuring supply security. In response, this study develops an analytical framework to systematically assess geopolitical competition risks. The framework integrates multiple approaches, including game theory, a supply–demand model, logical deduction, and indicator development. The results suggest that three types of strategic behaviors constitute the primary sources of geopolitical competition risk: rent-seeking by geo-peripheral exporters, supply control by geo-core importers, and downstream value capture by geo-core exporters. Such competition may lead to supply disruptions, market volatility, and demand shocks. The framework is applied to a lithium case study. The results indicate that the United States (44%, driven by supply control), Chile (10%, driven by mineral rent-seeking), China (9% from supply control and 5% from downstream dominance), and Australia (9% from downstream dominance) are the major contributors to geopolitical competition risks. Overall, supply control risks associated with geo-core importers dominate, accounting for 53% of the total impact.</p>