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<p>Against the backdrop of accelerating global decarbonization and progressive implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, carbon markets have evolved beyond regional environmental policy instruments to become potential drivers of global commodity markets. Critical minerals essential to clean energy technologies have emerged as strategic resources, yet the mechanisms linking carbon and metal markets remain inadequately understood. Existing research has devoted limited attention to directional causality, state-dependent spillover characteristics, and dynamic moderating mechanisms, particularly neglecting the role of energy markets as transmission intermediaries. This study aims to identify carbon–metal transmission channels, characterize state-dependent spillover patterns, and quantify how external shocks moderate cross-market risk propagation. Given the time-varying nature of market linkages and heterogeneous responses across market conditions, this study incorporates energy prices and employs Granger causality networks, QVAR, and TVP-VAR-SV to examine the EU ETS's impacts on six metal futures from January 2021 to October 2025. Three core findings emerge. First, carbon price signals are transmitted through dual channels: a direct channel affecting aluminum and lithium, and an indirect energy-mediated channel affecting copper, nickel, and zinc. Second, spillovers follow a U-shaped pattern across quantiles, with carbon markets transitioning from net receivers to net transmitters at extremes. Third, supply chain pressure amplifies spillovers, while trade policy uncertainty shifts from suppression to amplification of transmission. These findings imply that risk frameworks calibrated to normal conditions may underestimate tail risks, and CBAM implementation should account for energy cost pass-through effects. This study proposes differentiated monitoring for metals with heterogeneous carbon exposure and coordination between carbon policy and supply chain strategies.</p>

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Carbon–metal market nexus: transmission mechanisms and conditional effects evidence from the EU ETS

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Qingjun Zhang,
  • Yawei Cao,
  • Hong Guo,
  • Bingshu Fang

摘要

Against the backdrop of accelerating global decarbonization and progressive implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, carbon markets have evolved beyond regional environmental policy instruments to become potential drivers of global commodity markets. Critical minerals essential to clean energy technologies have emerged as strategic resources, yet the mechanisms linking carbon and metal markets remain inadequately understood. Existing research has devoted limited attention to directional causality, state-dependent spillover characteristics, and dynamic moderating mechanisms, particularly neglecting the role of energy markets as transmission intermediaries. This study aims to identify carbon–metal transmission channels, characterize state-dependent spillover patterns, and quantify how external shocks moderate cross-market risk propagation. Given the time-varying nature of market linkages and heterogeneous responses across market conditions, this study incorporates energy prices and employs Granger causality networks, QVAR, and TVP-VAR-SV to examine the EU ETS's impacts on six metal futures from January 2021 to October 2025. Three core findings emerge. First, carbon price signals are transmitted through dual channels: a direct channel affecting aluminum and lithium, and an indirect energy-mediated channel affecting copper, nickel, and zinc. Second, spillovers follow a U-shaped pattern across quantiles, with carbon markets transitioning from net receivers to net transmitters at extremes. Third, supply chain pressure amplifies spillovers, while trade policy uncertainty shifts from suppression to amplification of transmission. These findings imply that risk frameworks calibrated to normal conditions may underestimate tail risks, and CBAM implementation should account for energy cost pass-through effects. This study proposes differentiated monitoring for metals with heterogeneous carbon exposure and coordination between carbon policy and supply chain strategies.