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<p>The relationship between mineral resource abundance—particularly oil exports and economic growth has long attracted scholarly and policy attention due to its complex and often paradoxical nature. This study investigates the resource curse hypothesis by employing panel data from 57 oil-exporting countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) over the period 1993–2022. Utilizing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, we examine the non-linear effects of oil exports on economic growth. The findings reveal that: (i) excessive dependence on oil exports tends to impede economic growth, particularly in less developed economies, supporting the resource curse hypothesis; (ii) human capital development, trade openness, government stability, and targeted investment contribute positively to economic performance, mitigating the adverse effects of resource dependency; and (iii) transparent and accountable governance, along with political stability, enhances economic resilience by attracting investment and reducing reliance on resource exports. The results underscore the importance of adaptive policy frameworks that respond to evolving economic dynamics, enabling natural resources to serve as drivers—rather than deterrents—of sustainable economic growth.</p>

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Re-examining the resource curse in BRI economies: The role of governance, trade, and human capital

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Tufail Muhammad,
  • Gouhua Ni,
  • Zhenling Chen

摘要

The relationship between mineral resource abundance—particularly oil exports and economic growth has long attracted scholarly and policy attention due to its complex and often paradoxical nature. This study investigates the resource curse hypothesis by employing panel data from 57 oil-exporting countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) over the period 1993–2022. Utilizing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, we examine the non-linear effects of oil exports on economic growth. The findings reveal that: (i) excessive dependence on oil exports tends to impede economic growth, particularly in less developed economies, supporting the resource curse hypothesis; (ii) human capital development, trade openness, government stability, and targeted investment contribute positively to economic performance, mitigating the adverse effects of resource dependency; and (iii) transparent and accountable governance, along with political stability, enhances economic resilience by attracting investment and reducing reliance on resource exports. The results underscore the importance of adaptive policy frameworks that respond to evolving economic dynamics, enabling natural resources to serve as drivers—rather than deterrents—of sustainable economic growth.