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<p>This study differs from existing knowledge bases by incorporating nonlinearities and asymmetries in the way that natural resource rents (NRR) respond to changes in economic complexity (ECI) in resource-rich economies. Additionally, this study provides the first country-specific analysis by examining the role of ECI in reducing resource dependence and mitigating the resource curse in Saudi Arabia from 1984 to 2021. This study utilises Saudi Arabian data due to the country’s experience with the resource curse and dependence syndrome, as well as its significant asymmetries in ECI data. We employ a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) to analyse the data. In contrast to previous research, this study provides compelling evidence of asymmetries in the way that NRR respond to changes in ECI. The short-run findings demonstrate that cumulative reductions in ECI (negative shock components) enhance economic diversification and hasten the development of non-resource industries, thereby reducing reliance on natural resource endowments and mitigating the resource curse. Meanwhile, the short- and long-run findings show that Saudi Arabia’s resource dependency and the resource curse intensify following cumulative upgrades (positive shocks) in ECI. This phenomenon deters the development of non-resource industries and economic diversification. Hence, this paper suggests that Saudi Arabia’s policymakers, stakeholders, and governments should shift the focus of the nation’s ECI improvements from resource-based to non-resource-based capacity building.</p>

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Does economic complexity have an asymmetric effect on natural resource rents? Evidence-based perspectives from Saudi Arabia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Clement Olalekan Olaniyi,
  • Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan,
  • Mosab I. Tabash

摘要

This study differs from existing knowledge bases by incorporating nonlinearities and asymmetries in the way that natural resource rents (NRR) respond to changes in economic complexity (ECI) in resource-rich economies. Additionally, this study provides the first country-specific analysis by examining the role of ECI in reducing resource dependence and mitigating the resource curse in Saudi Arabia from 1984 to 2021. This study utilises Saudi Arabian data due to the country’s experience with the resource curse and dependence syndrome, as well as its significant asymmetries in ECI data. We employ a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) to analyse the data. In contrast to previous research, this study provides compelling evidence of asymmetries in the way that NRR respond to changes in ECI. The short-run findings demonstrate that cumulative reductions in ECI (negative shock components) enhance economic diversification and hasten the development of non-resource industries, thereby reducing reliance on natural resource endowments and mitigating the resource curse. Meanwhile, the short- and long-run findings show that Saudi Arabia’s resource dependency and the resource curse intensify following cumulative upgrades (positive shocks) in ECI. This phenomenon deters the development of non-resource industries and economic diversification. Hence, this paper suggests that Saudi Arabia’s policymakers, stakeholders, and governments should shift the focus of the nation’s ECI improvements from resource-based to non-resource-based capacity building.