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<p>As the global push for clean energy intensifies, the role of energy transition materials (ETMs) such as copper, nickel, aluminium, zinc, iron ore, tin, and lead has grown increasingly critical. However, their vulnerability to financial turbulence raises pressing concerns about supply security and price stability. This study investigates the dynamic and frequency-dependent relationships between financial stress and the price movements of these key transition metals, using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2023Q4. Employing a multi-layered wavelet framework, which includes Wavelet Power Spectrum, Wavelet Coherence, Partial Wavelet Coherence, and Vector Wavelet Coherence, we uncover distinct patterns of comovement and causality across various time horizons. Results reveal that copper and nickel exhibit persistent high-power zones and strong coherence with financial stress, especially during major economic crises. At the same time, metals like tin and lead demonstrate more moderate or episodic linkages. Partial coherence estimates confirm these associations even after accounting for geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and shifts in climate policy. Robustness checks via VWC further validate the findings. These insights highlight the differentiated sensitivities of ETMs to macro-financial shocks and emphasise the urgency of tailored risk mitigation strategies to safeguard the stability of green supply chains in an increasingly volatile global financial system.</p>

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Financial turbulence and decarbonisation: evidence from energy transition materials

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月21日

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  • Seyi Saint Akadiri,
  • Oktay Ozkan

摘要

As the global push for clean energy intensifies, the role of energy transition materials (ETMs) such as copper, nickel, aluminium, zinc, iron ore, tin, and lead has grown increasingly critical. However, their vulnerability to financial turbulence raises pressing concerns about supply security and price stability. This study investigates the dynamic and frequency-dependent relationships between financial stress and the price movements of these key transition metals, using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2023Q4. Employing a multi-layered wavelet framework, which includes Wavelet Power Spectrum, Wavelet Coherence, Partial Wavelet Coherence, and Vector Wavelet Coherence, we uncover distinct patterns of comovement and causality across various time horizons. Results reveal that copper and nickel exhibit persistent high-power zones and strong coherence with financial stress, especially during major economic crises. At the same time, metals like tin and lead demonstrate more moderate or episodic linkages. Partial coherence estimates confirm these associations even after accounting for geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and shifts in climate policy. Robustness checks via VWC further validate the findings. These insights highlight the differentiated sensitivities of ETMs to macro-financial shocks and emphasise the urgency of tailored risk mitigation strategies to safeguard the stability of green supply chains in an increasingly volatile global financial system.