The dynamics of climate policy uncertainty and precious metals: a wavelet approach
摘要
This study investigates the dynamic relationship between the climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and the returns on prices of precious metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Rhodium. We applied the continuous wavelet transform, wavelet coherence, and the discrete wavelet-based Granger causality approach to track the evolution and capture the comovement between the series across time and frequency domains. The results show a heterogeneous pattern between the series across time and frequencies (short, medium, and long terms) given the changes in the lead-lag, in-phase, and anti-phase statuses. The empirical conclusion shows that in the long term, Gold, Silver, Palladium, and Rhodium primarily served as hedging and safe-haven instruments against CPU, corroborating the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In the short and medium term, the dual role of all the precious metals is evident as both reactive and predictive instruments, given the bi-directional causality and feedback effect evident in these frequency scales. As such, precious metals serve as hedging assets and indicators or proxies of climate-related uncertainty by reflecting shifts in market sentiment and policy expectations. The paper focuses on the dynamics between CPU and precious metals and provides insights for traders, investors, and policymakers in trading strategy, portfolio diversification, and risk management.