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<p>Maritime accidents in West African waters impose substantial socioeconomic costs through injuries, fatalities, and consequential damage, including pollution, vessel loss, and financial impacts. This study analyzes 25&#xa0;years (1997–2022) of accident records from the IMO’s GISIS, examining vessel characteristics, type, purpose, and tonnage as predictors of accident occurrence. Survival analysis identified the Gompertz model as the best fit (<i>l</i> = -25.47), reflecting exponentially increasing risk due to vessel aging and cumulative operational exposure. Observed outcomes, casualty, fatality, and consequential damage, were included as interaction terms with vessel characteristics to assess associations with accident hazards. Results show smaller vessels are more often involved in non-fatal accidents but can experience significant casualty events, whereas merchant vessels are more frequently associated with severe outcomes. Fishing vessels and tanker ships exhibit elevated risks of total loss, serious injury, and fatalities. These findings highlight the heterogeneous vulnerability of vessel type, purpose and size, supporting targeted risk assessments and context-specific safety interventions in West African waters.</p>

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Linking vessel characteristics to accident severity in West African waters: a survival analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Ayodele Adekunle Faiyetole,
  • Kolade Emmanuel Akeredolu,
  • Winner Opemipo Abiodun,
  • Sodiq Olusegun Buhari,
  • Adewumi Augustine Adepitan,
  • Oluwatobi Adebusuyi Oluwasakin

摘要

Maritime accidents in West African waters impose substantial socioeconomic costs through injuries, fatalities, and consequential damage, including pollution, vessel loss, and financial impacts. This study analyzes 25 years (1997–2022) of accident records from the IMO’s GISIS, examining vessel characteristics, type, purpose, and tonnage as predictors of accident occurrence. Survival analysis identified the Gompertz model as the best fit (l = -25.47), reflecting exponentially increasing risk due to vessel aging and cumulative operational exposure. Observed outcomes, casualty, fatality, and consequential damage, were included as interaction terms with vessel characteristics to assess associations with accident hazards. Results show smaller vessels are more often involved in non-fatal accidents but can experience significant casualty events, whereas merchant vessels are more frequently associated with severe outcomes. Fishing vessels and tanker ships exhibit elevated risks of total loss, serious injury, and fatalities. These findings highlight the heterogeneous vulnerability of vessel type, purpose and size, supporting targeted risk assessments and context-specific safety interventions in West African waters.