A framework for the valuation of insurance liabilities by production cost
摘要
This paper sets out a framework for the valuation of liabilities from insurance contracts that is intended to be economically realistic, elementary, reasonably practically applicable, and as a special case to provide a basis for the valuation in regulatory solvency systems such as Solvency II and the SST. The valuation framework is based on the cost of producing the liabilities to an insurance company that is subject to solvency regulation (regulatory solvency capital requirements) and insolvency laws (definition and consequences of failure) in finite discrete time. Starting from the replication approach of classical no-arbitrage theory, but without assuming the existence of “risk-neutral” pricing measures, the framework additionally considers the nature and cost of capital (expressed by a “financiability condition”), that the liabilities may only be required to be fulfilled “in sufficiently many cases” (expressed by a “fulfillment condition”), production using “fully illiquid” assets in addition to tradables, and the asymmetry between assets and liabilities. We identify a necessary and sufficient property of the financiability condition such that the framework recovers the market prices of tradables. We investigate how to derive production strategies and Solvency II and SST valuation under specific assumptions.