Scholarlink

<p>Poliomyelitis is a deadly viral disease caused by various strains and highly contagious. The wild poliovirus (WPV) is the most harmful, attacking the host’s nervous system, leading to paralysis and death within hours. Vaccination remains the main effective prevention measure which protect the population at high risk composed mainly of children under 5 years of age. In Cameroon, a fourth-dose vaccination campaign was introduced to eradicate the disease, and the country was declared polio-free in 2020 by WHO. However, in 2021, two cases were detected again. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the multi-dose vaccination strategy to eliminate Polio in Cameroon, using mathematical modelling. The study formulates and analyses a compartmental mathematical model with four vaccination classes, focusing on the administration of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Using combined data on reported cases and vaccine coverage, we calibrate and validate the model, estimate the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and make predictions about the dynamics of the disease until 2035. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon, which is a potential explanation why poliomyelitis is persistent in Cameroon with sporadic cases despite being declared polio-free. Sensitivity analysis reveals that asymptomatic carriers spread the disease more than symptomatic cases. our model suggests that, though the current vaccination scheme may eliminate Polio, a vaccine efficacy 85% administered to at least 85% newborns during the first-dose around is enough to accelerate its eradication by 2035.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Multi-dose vaccination scheme eliminates poliomyelitis in Cameroon: a mathematical modelling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

查看全文
  • Billy Gaspari Tchounke,
  • Cletus Kwa Kum,
  • Berge Tsanou

摘要

Poliomyelitis is a deadly viral disease caused by various strains and highly contagious. The wild poliovirus (WPV) is the most harmful, attacking the host’s nervous system, leading to paralysis and death within hours. Vaccination remains the main effective prevention measure which protect the population at high risk composed mainly of children under 5 years of age. In Cameroon, a fourth-dose vaccination campaign was introduced to eradicate the disease, and the country was declared polio-free in 2020 by WHO. However, in 2021, two cases were detected again. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the multi-dose vaccination strategy to eliminate Polio in Cameroon, using mathematical modelling. The study formulates and analyses a compartmental mathematical model with four vaccination classes, focusing on the administration of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Using combined data on reported cases and vaccine coverage, we calibrate and validate the model, estimate the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal {R}_0\) , and make predictions about the dynamics of the disease until 2035. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon, which is a potential explanation why poliomyelitis is persistent in Cameroon with sporadic cases despite being declared polio-free. Sensitivity analysis reveals that asymptomatic carriers spread the disease more than symptomatic cases. our model suggests that, though the current vaccination scheme may eliminate Polio, a vaccine efficacy 85% administered to at least 85% newborns during the first-dose around is enough to accelerate its eradication by 2035.