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<p>European roe deer (<i>Capreolus capreolus</i> L., 1758) is a widely distributed ungulate, occurring throughout the Europe, Caucasus, and western Asia; however, populations in Türkiye are limited by habitat constraints caused by climate change. This study focuses on the habitat suitability of the species across its range and examines how future climate scenarios are expected to influence it. Using ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt), we assessed habitat suitability under present-day conditions and projected future distributions for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) across seven general circulation models (GCMs) and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). In addition to GBIF records for the species, occurrence data were obtained from long-term field surveys, official reports of the General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks, social media records, and roadkill records. The results show that habitat suitability is largely shaped by the annual range of temperature, the seasonality of precipitation, and the mean annual temperature. Present-day projections suggest the species is predominantly associated with temperate forested regions, with high suitability in central and Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and western Russia, and decreasing suitability in southern Europe, Türkiye, and the Mediterranean basin due to increasing climatic constraints. Future projections reveal a northward shift in suitable habitats with considerable habitat loss in southern Europe, Türkiye, and western Asia. Under SSP 5-8.5 projections, suitable habitats in Türkiye are projected to decrease by up to 66% by 2081–2100. Though habitat loss in southern part of the range is accelerating, suitable habitats are expected to appear in northern Europe, which could allow for range expansion.</p>

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Climate change-induced shifts in habitat suitability for the European roe deer (Capreolus Capreolus L., 1758) across Europe and Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月4日

查看全文
  • Derya Gülçin,
  • Özkan Evcin,
  • Kerim Çiçek,
  • Javier Velázquez,
  • Ali Uğur Özcan

摘要

European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L., 1758) is a widely distributed ungulate, occurring throughout the Europe, Caucasus, and western Asia; however, populations in Türkiye are limited by habitat constraints caused by climate change. This study focuses on the habitat suitability of the species across its range and examines how future climate scenarios are expected to influence it. Using ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt), we assessed habitat suitability under present-day conditions and projected future distributions for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) across seven general circulation models (GCMs) and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). In addition to GBIF records for the species, occurrence data were obtained from long-term field surveys, official reports of the General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks, social media records, and roadkill records. The results show that habitat suitability is largely shaped by the annual range of temperature, the seasonality of precipitation, and the mean annual temperature. Present-day projections suggest the species is predominantly associated with temperate forested regions, with high suitability in central and Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and western Russia, and decreasing suitability in southern Europe, Türkiye, and the Mediterranean basin due to increasing climatic constraints. Future projections reveal a northward shift in suitable habitats with considerable habitat loss in southern Europe, Türkiye, and western Asia. Under SSP 5-8.5 projections, suitable habitats in Türkiye are projected to decrease by up to 66% by 2081–2100. Though habitat loss in southern part of the range is accelerating, suitable habitats are expected to appear in northern Europe, which could allow for range expansion.