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Objective <p>To identify risk factors for persistent HPV infection in cervical low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) patients with high-risk HPV post-treatment and to develop a clinical prediction model for early intervention in high-risk groups.</p> Methods <p>We retrospectively analyzed 243 LSIL patients from Anhui Maternal and Child Health Hospital (July 2021–July 2022). After one year of follow-up, patients were classified as non-persistent (<i>n</i> = 179) or persistent (<i>n</i> = 64) based on post-treatment HPV status. Clinical data were collected and analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors. A nomogram was developed and validated to predict persistent HPV infection.</p> Results <p>Independent risk factors included interferon use, menopause, first sexual intercourse before age 16, type III transformation zone, HPV 16/18 infection, multiple HPV infections, positive E6/E7 mRNA, and positive sialidase or peroxidase tests. The nomogram showed strong predictive performance with an AUC of 0.9615. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test (<i>P</i> = 0.6984) indicated good model fit. Calibration and decision curves confirmed excellent calibration and clinical utility.</p> Conclusion <p>Key risk factors for persistent HPV infection after treatment in LSIL patients with high-risk HPV were identified. The nomogram based on these factors provides accurate prediction and supports early clinical intervention.</p>

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Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Persistent HPV Infection in Cervical Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion Patients with High-Grade HPV Infection Post-Treatment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月27日

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  • Xi Ye,
  • Xiangfeng Zhang,
  • Le Yu,
  • Chenmin Zheng,
  • Xuanxuan Hong,
  • Fei Wang,
  • Liehong Wang

摘要

Objective

To identify risk factors for persistent HPV infection in cervical low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) patients with high-risk HPV post-treatment and to develop a clinical prediction model for early intervention in high-risk groups.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 243 LSIL patients from Anhui Maternal and Child Health Hospital (July 2021–July 2022). After one year of follow-up, patients were classified as non-persistent (n = 179) or persistent (n = 64) based on post-treatment HPV status. Clinical data were collected and analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors. A nomogram was developed and validated to predict persistent HPV infection.

Results

Independent risk factors included interferon use, menopause, first sexual intercourse before age 16, type III transformation zone, HPV 16/18 infection, multiple HPV infections, positive E6/E7 mRNA, and positive sialidase or peroxidase tests. The nomogram showed strong predictive performance with an AUC of 0.9615. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test (P = 0.6984) indicated good model fit. Calibration and decision curves confirmed excellent calibration and clinical utility.

Conclusion

Key risk factors for persistent HPV infection after treatment in LSIL patients with high-risk HPV were identified. The nomogram based on these factors provides accurate prediction and supports early clinical intervention.