<p>Wetlands are complex ecosystems undergoing rapid and continuous change driven by a wide array of interrelated factors. Continuous adaptation to an evolving situation is therefore essential, often through trial and error, given the ambiguity of these changes and their consequences. Under such circumstances, futures thinking provides a sense- and decision-making approach that can help navigate a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world. This article presents an exploratory futures-thinking analysis of the future of wetland conservation with three interrelated aims: to introduce futures-thinking methodologies to the wetland community, to contextualise discussion on the future of wetland conservation within observable trends, and to broaden the anticipatory horizon of wetland-related discourse. Based on scanning for signals of change across environmental, social and economic domains, eleven key trends shaping the future of wetland research, governance and management were identified and synthesised into a future matrix structured around two principal drivers of change: conservation funding availability and the dominant societal relationship with nature (anthropocentric versus ecocentric). Within this matrix, four alternative scenarios for 2050 were developed, representing contrasting futures of wetland conservation. The results demonstrate the value of futures thinking for anticipating risks, revealing trade-offs and highlighting opportunities for informed conservation decision-making. The proposed scenarios offer a flexible framework to support strategic dialogue, preparedness and future-oriented planning in an increasingly uncertain conservation landscape.</p>

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Future of Wetlands’ Conservation: Four Alternative Scenarios for 2050

  • Monika Mętrak

摘要

Wetlands are complex ecosystems undergoing rapid and continuous change driven by a wide array of interrelated factors. Continuous adaptation to an evolving situation is therefore essential, often through trial and error, given the ambiguity of these changes and their consequences. Under such circumstances, futures thinking provides a sense- and decision-making approach that can help navigate a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world. This article presents an exploratory futures-thinking analysis of the future of wetland conservation with three interrelated aims: to introduce futures-thinking methodologies to the wetland community, to contextualise discussion on the future of wetland conservation within observable trends, and to broaden the anticipatory horizon of wetland-related discourse. Based on scanning for signals of change across environmental, social and economic domains, eleven key trends shaping the future of wetland research, governance and management were identified and synthesised into a future matrix structured around two principal drivers of change: conservation funding availability and the dominant societal relationship with nature (anthropocentric versus ecocentric). Within this matrix, four alternative scenarios for 2050 were developed, representing contrasting futures of wetland conservation. The results demonstrate the value of futures thinking for anticipating risks, revealing trade-offs and highlighting opportunities for informed conservation decision-making. The proposed scenarios offer a flexible framework to support strategic dialogue, preparedness and future-oriented planning in an increasingly uncertain conservation landscape.