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<p>The Hara Biosphere Reserve (HBR) on Iran's southern coast has been facing critical environmental challenges due to changes in mangrove coverage and related risk factors. This study investigates spatial risk variations in the HBR over the last 30&#xa0;years, with a particular focus on hydrodynamic influences and mangrove degradation. By utilizing a comprehensive dataset that includes variables such as current speed, wave power, mangrove cover, land reduction, and port accessibility, the study applies statistical analysis and visualization techniques to pinpoint risk patterns. The results indicate that mangrove degradation—resulting in up to a 50% reduction in some areas, especially in the southeastern region—is the predominant risk factor. Human activities, such as local exploitation, significantly contribute to this decline. Moreover, infrastructure like ports and wharves frequently coincide with high-risk zones, underscoring the necessity for stricter regulation on their placement and usage. In high-risk regions, the average wave power is approximately 0.08&#xa0;kW/m, while current speeds vary between 0.02 and 0.05&#xa0;m/s. Although hydrodynamic factors play a secondary role in driving risk, they are crucial in pollutant dispersion and potential contamination, particularly during extreme weather conditions. Safeguarding the HBR's ecological integrity will require a multifaceted approach, combining conservation strategies, infrastructure regulation, and advanced monitoring technologies. Ongoing risk assessment through satellite imagery and numerical modeling is essential for effective long-term management.</p>

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Long-term Change in the Hara Biosphere Reserve: Evaluating Mangrove Degradation and Risk Through Hydrodynamic and Environmental Factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月2日

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  • Danial Ghaderi

摘要

The Hara Biosphere Reserve (HBR) on Iran's southern coast has been facing critical environmental challenges due to changes in mangrove coverage and related risk factors. This study investigates spatial risk variations in the HBR over the last 30 years, with a particular focus on hydrodynamic influences and mangrove degradation. By utilizing a comprehensive dataset that includes variables such as current speed, wave power, mangrove cover, land reduction, and port accessibility, the study applies statistical analysis and visualization techniques to pinpoint risk patterns. The results indicate that mangrove degradation—resulting in up to a 50% reduction in some areas, especially in the southeastern region—is the predominant risk factor. Human activities, such as local exploitation, significantly contribute to this decline. Moreover, infrastructure like ports and wharves frequently coincide with high-risk zones, underscoring the necessity for stricter regulation on their placement and usage. In high-risk regions, the average wave power is approximately 0.08 kW/m, while current speeds vary between 0.02 and 0.05 m/s. Although hydrodynamic factors play a secondary role in driving risk, they are crucial in pollutant dispersion and potential contamination, particularly during extreme weather conditions. Safeguarding the HBR's ecological integrity will require a multifaceted approach, combining conservation strategies, infrastructure regulation, and advanced monitoring technologies. Ongoing risk assessment through satellite imagery and numerical modeling is essential for effective long-term management.