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<p>Knowledge has become an essential driver of long-run economic growth, placing human capital, innovation, and institutional quality at the core of the knowledge economy. While scholars have identified numerous mechanisms through which natural resource dependence may hinder growth, these mechanisms have rarely been interpreted within a unified knowledge-economy framework. This paper argues that natural resource dependence undermines long-run growth by progressively deteriorating the foundations of the knowledge economy. Using a panel of 188 countries over the period 1960–2023, the study combines structural equation modelling with instrumental variables (SEM-IV) and cumulative average growth rates (CAGR) measured over horizons ranging from one to twenty years. This approach makes it possible to identify multiple transmission channels simultaneously while examining their temporal dynamics. The results provide strong support for the proposed knowledge-economy disruption hypothesis. Natural resource dependence significantly weakens human capital accumulation, institutional quality, and innovation, with these knowledge-economy channels accounting for most of the long-run adverse effects on growth. Among them, innovation emerges as the single largest mediation channel, highlighting a mechanism that has received comparatively little attention in the resource curse literature despite its central role in knowledge-based development. By contrast, traditional Dutch disease variables, including real exchange rate appreciation and trade distortions, appear primarily as downstream manifestations of a deeper structural process rather than as its fundamental cause. Conceptually, the paper bridges the resource curse and knowledge economy literatures by showing that many mechanisms traditionally associated with the resource curse can be interpreted as successive manifestations of the gradual erosion of the knowledge-economy foundations required for sustained productivity growth. The findings suggest that escaping the resource curse ultimately depends less on managing natural resources than on building a resilient knowledge economy.</p>

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Natural Resources Dependence and Growth: A Knowledge-Economy Perspective on the Transmission Channels

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Emmanuel Sukadi A Sukadi

摘要

Knowledge has become an essential driver of long-run economic growth, placing human capital, innovation, and institutional quality at the core of the knowledge economy. While scholars have identified numerous mechanisms through which natural resource dependence may hinder growth, these mechanisms have rarely been interpreted within a unified knowledge-economy framework. This paper argues that natural resource dependence undermines long-run growth by progressively deteriorating the foundations of the knowledge economy. Using a panel of 188 countries over the period 1960–2023, the study combines structural equation modelling with instrumental variables (SEM-IV) and cumulative average growth rates (CAGR) measured over horizons ranging from one to twenty years. This approach makes it possible to identify multiple transmission channels simultaneously while examining their temporal dynamics. The results provide strong support for the proposed knowledge-economy disruption hypothesis. Natural resource dependence significantly weakens human capital accumulation, institutional quality, and innovation, with these knowledge-economy channels accounting for most of the long-run adverse effects on growth. Among them, innovation emerges as the single largest mediation channel, highlighting a mechanism that has received comparatively little attention in the resource curse literature despite its central role in knowledge-based development. By contrast, traditional Dutch disease variables, including real exchange rate appreciation and trade distortions, appear primarily as downstream manifestations of a deeper structural process rather than as its fundamental cause. Conceptually, the paper bridges the resource curse and knowledge economy literatures by showing that many mechanisms traditionally associated with the resource curse can be interpreted as successive manifestations of the gradual erosion of the knowledge-economy foundations required for sustained productivity growth. The findings suggest that escaping the resource curse ultimately depends less on managing natural resources than on building a resilient knowledge economy.