In knowledge-based economies, sustained economic growth and inclusive development depend critically on the quality of human capital as a vehicle for knowledge creation, diffusion, and application. While traditional neoclassical theories emphasize the quantity of schooling in human capital formation, more recent approaches, most notably Attanasio’s (2015) framework, stress the cumulative and multidimensional nature of skill and knowledge acquisition, particularly across varying learning environments. Against this backdrop, this study examines the process of quality human capital formation during large-scale disruptions, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. We combine micro-level survey data from the UNESCO/IEA Responses to Educational Disruption Survey (REDS 2021) with macro-level indicators from the World Bank Human Capital Index for 2022 to assess how academic performance during the pandemic influenced human capital quality across countries. Using a Tobit regression model to account for censoring between improved (effective) and unimproved (ineffective) human capital outcomes, we find that poor educational performance during the pandemic has a strong, statistically significant adverse effect on human capital quality. Learning environments, socioeconomic conditions, and institutional factors also play important roles. The findings provide empirical support for Attanasio’s human capital formation framework and demonstrate that learning disruptions constitute shocks to knowledge-creation systems, with potential long-term implications for productivity and innovation. We conclude that post-pandemic recovery strategies must prioritize education quality, effective digital learning, and targeted human capital policies to strengthen the resilience of knowledge-based economies and support sustainable development.
