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<p>This study aims to empirically assess the role of trade openness in facilitating knowledge flows and influencing economic growth in the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Libya) between 1990 and 2021. Based on endogenous growth theory, the analysis emphasizes the role of trade openness in facilitating the diffusion of knowledge from global markets. It also examines how the domestic economy’s absorption capacity, proxied by gross fixed capital formation and financial development, influences the conversion of external knowledge spillovers into sustained growth. To capture both symmetric and asymmetric dynamics, the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches are employed within a panel framework. Robustness is ensured through first- and second-generation panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence diagnostics, and cointegration techniques. Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, our findings confirm a statistically significant, positive long-run impact of trade openness on economic growth across the AMU countries. Notably, the asymmetric analysis reveals that positive and negative changes in trade openness have distinct, quantitatively significant, and growth-enhancing effects, highlighting nonlinear transmission mechanisms. These results support the view that, provided countries possess adequate absorptive capacity, trade openness not only expands market access but also enhances productivity through knowledge inflows. Thus, the study reinforces the Trade-Led Growth hypothesis, highlighting the nuanced, knowledge-mediated pathways through which openness drives development in the Maghreb region.</p>

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Analysis of the Symmetric and the Asymmetric Impacts of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in AMU Countries: Empirical Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月27日

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  • Mariem Bouattour,
  • Kamel Helali

摘要

This study aims to empirically assess the role of trade openness in facilitating knowledge flows and influencing economic growth in the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Libya) between 1990 and 2021. Based on endogenous growth theory, the analysis emphasizes the role of trade openness in facilitating the diffusion of knowledge from global markets. It also examines how the domestic economy’s absorption capacity, proxied by gross fixed capital formation and financial development, influences the conversion of external knowledge spillovers into sustained growth. To capture both symmetric and asymmetric dynamics, the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches are employed within a panel framework. Robustness is ensured through first- and second-generation panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence diagnostics, and cointegration techniques. Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, our findings confirm a statistically significant, positive long-run impact of trade openness on economic growth across the AMU countries. Notably, the asymmetric analysis reveals that positive and negative changes in trade openness have distinct, quantitatively significant, and growth-enhancing effects, highlighting nonlinear transmission mechanisms. These results support the view that, provided countries possess adequate absorptive capacity, trade openness not only expands market access but also enhances productivity through knowledge inflows. Thus, the study reinforces the Trade-Led Growth hypothesis, highlighting the nuanced, knowledge-mediated pathways through which openness drives development in the Maghreb region.