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<p>In a setting marked by an increase in extreme climate shocks, food price volatility and political instability in African countries, this article aims to analyse the impact of climate change and food price volatility on political instability in 36 African countries over the period 2000–2021. To achieve this objective, we estimate a dynamic panel data model using the system-generalised method of moments (S-GMM), which controls for possible endogeneity problems. The results suggest that climate change increases political instability in Africa. Specifically, we find that rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall exacerbate pre-existing instability. We also find that while food price volatility increases political instability, it is also a mechanism through which climate change can accelerate this instability. Robustness analysis using two-way fixed effects (TWFE) confirms our previous findings. As recommendations, we propose the development of effective approaches to adapt or mitigate the effects of climate change, through the preservation of the environment and the production and consumption of green energy. Moreover, we propose the stabilisation of food prices by increasing the stocks of foodstuffs held by farming populations.</p>

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Do Climate Change and Food Price Volatility Influence Political Instability? Evidence from African Countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月22日

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  • Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien

摘要

In a setting marked by an increase in extreme climate shocks, food price volatility and political instability in African countries, this article aims to analyse the impact of climate change and food price volatility on political instability in 36 African countries over the period 2000–2021. To achieve this objective, we estimate a dynamic panel data model using the system-generalised method of moments (S-GMM), which controls for possible endogeneity problems. The results suggest that climate change increases political instability in Africa. Specifically, we find that rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall exacerbate pre-existing instability. We also find that while food price volatility increases political instability, it is also a mechanism through which climate change can accelerate this instability. Robustness analysis using two-way fixed effects (TWFE) confirms our previous findings. As recommendations, we propose the development of effective approaches to adapt or mitigate the effects of climate change, through the preservation of the environment and the production and consumption of green energy. Moreover, we propose the stabilisation of food prices by increasing the stocks of foodstuffs held by farming populations.