The Interactive Effect of Economic Complexity and Globalization on Exchange Rate
摘要
The exchange rate refers to the relative value of currencies between two countries. When the exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium level, it can lead to macroeconomic instability and imbalances in trade, financial markets, and overall price levels. Therefore, understanding the determinants of exchange rates and the factors that influence them is crucial for policymakers to achieve to equilibrium level. This study uses panel data and the quantile-on-quantile regression to investigate the interactive effect of economic complexity and globalization on the exchange rate in selected developing knowledge-producing countries from 2007 to 2023. The results show that economic complexity and all indicators of globalization, including economic, social, and political globalization, have negative and positive effects on various deciles of multiple economic complexity and globalization on exchange rate. Other explanatory variables such as money supply have a positive and significant effect, while the degree of trade openness and political stability have a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of considering economic complexity and globalization in exchange rate policy decisions.